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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,528 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2635…5408backed No28c18,719$5,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,327.081723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No24c10,792$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.277423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No27c10,318$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.5519153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes75c7,979$5,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.822332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Yes72c6,928$5,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.881776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked No18c6,587$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.16944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No24c5,173$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.8323046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No26c4,580$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.0923745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes72c4,325$3,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.833644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes76c4,191$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.561681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No25c4,180$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.2714846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No24c4,001$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.334524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed No28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1201414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x498f…3a5bbacked Yes76c3,826$2,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No26c3,417$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.295954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No25c3,009$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.472846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No26c2,983$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.62218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes72c2,778$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.783770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes72c2,763$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.819053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Yes77c2,623$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c14…a20abacked Yes75c2,605$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1319…cf06backed Yes77c2,233$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c2…4074backed No26c2,012$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No25c2,004$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015959.3%35 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No26c1,800$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4689053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x227d…a39cbacked Yes77c1,558$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No19c1,468$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.795143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes71c1,386$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.783,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked Yes73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No18c1,344$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.272,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes76c1,291$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.764671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x003b…fc58backed Yes71c1,211$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.27650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa7…9a4dbacked Yes75c1,173$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.183100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No25c999.59$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.5510026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No18c800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes74c788.22$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.522065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x511a…9745backed Yes72c762.39$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.471478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes76c721.17$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.175054%27 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes70c701$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.539846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x666b…2b83backed Yes74c700$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a2a…4945backed Yes75c662.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes75c626.67$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Yes76c613.16$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.163100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed No24c600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa296…ab9ebacked Yes73c547.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.398459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No28c471$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.553330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a4c…6579backed No21c467.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.691442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf89f…bd07backed Yes76c460.53$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.533100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88de…1091backed No28c439.73$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.331526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes76c438.16$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.169173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7474…4ebabacked No37c424.95$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe782…e7d9backed Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb125…69ebbacked No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123420.6%7 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes73c400$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc8…d9f7backed Yes68c385.44$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No29c378.74$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.051921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-68.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes75c376.32$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.32988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes74c337.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1c…6e03backed Yes73c333$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…e7a1backed Yes73c330.38$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Yes76c315.79$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.792544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No24c299.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7211036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Yes75c296.44$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.855347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No27c296.3$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Yes72c295.53$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.751050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Yes71c279.15$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.151580%12 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+89.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.781681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked No25c275$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4210128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3061…862ebacked Yes75c266.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c5…f6d4backed Yes75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.671735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf735…b074backed Yes76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32a…b9a4backed Yes77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.74560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849a…7163backed No25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68b…6327backed Yes75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes76c247.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.282360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2276…307bbacked Yes72c245.83$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc48d…8a40backed Yes75c235.14$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.142161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x258f…d31ebacked Yes67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes75c223.01$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Yes72c222.22$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.221560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2269…6304backed Yes72c222.22$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.225166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee7…f032backed Yes75c217.33$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a95…9bbbbacked Yes64c206.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cb…6d71backed No25c200.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1987…01d9backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes73c199.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f2…5bb5backed Yes73c199.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa4…17c0backed No28c199.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.992853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd002…2ee8backed Yes76c197.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.371758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No30c196.51$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2610347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bd…2182backed No18c190$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Yes71c190$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.14376.7%33 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f9e…00b1backed Yes74c186.49$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No29c186.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548250%41 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes76c180.54$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.332240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.