TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Cowboys vs. Eagles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eaglesof Cowboys, Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,880,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,689,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,880,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 625 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Cowboys22c892,480$192,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192,420.753259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Cowboys22c489,947$108,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108,271.1230043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Eagles79c465,400$365,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,0073435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c5…79a0backed Cowboys21c350,311$73,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,565.311361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Eagles80c159,804$127,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,419.5247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Cowboys22c154,149$33,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,676.6514351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Cowboys22c121,100$26,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,6422227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked Eagles78c109,261$85,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,944.731241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Eagles79c96,526$76,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,270.5317454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Eagles73c86,451$63,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,005.9811755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Eagles76c80,419$61,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,179.8410566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Eagles79c75,234$59,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,806.2444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Cowboys21c72,000$15,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,1201915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Eagles78c70,039$54,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,503.8222950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7c3…a26cbacked Eagles79c70,000$55,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7001643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Eagles76c64,214$48,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,240.1641851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Eagles76c61,057$46,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,751.089944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Eagles79c60,353$47,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,674.131154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Cowboys21c60,042$12,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,606.316836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Eagles78c60,000$47,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,949.9913843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Cowboys26c51,617$13,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,576.134436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Eagles79c47,455$37,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,060.0924652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea98…ce4dbacked Eagles79c41,615$32,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,739.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Eagles78c36,728$28,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,111.3310639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…da5dbacked Cowboys28c36,486$10,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,066.0440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Cowboys21c30,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.987035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Eagles79c26,423$20,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,548.796339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Cowboys21c25,592$5,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,348.338946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb58e…d570backed Eagles79c25,305$19,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,314.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Eagles79c23,127$18,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,806.261770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Eagles73c23,012$16,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,140.1719645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Eagles77c23,000$17,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2905048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Cowboys21c22,262$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,67513142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Cowboys21c21,920$4,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,603.227440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Cowboys21c19,772$4,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,152.215837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Eagles79c19,506$15,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,096.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cowboys22c18,556$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,060.3922548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Cowboys21c18,264$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.210333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Eagles79c18,071$14,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,877.4212138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Eagles79c18,000$14,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7806349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Cowboys29c16,988$4,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,847.9224551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles78c16,917$13,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,721.7883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Eagles79c16,811$13,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,530.223447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Cowboys25c16,031$4,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,013.3361148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Eagles78c16,000$12,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,559.9830743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Cowboys21c15,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.9810552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Eagles80c14,623$11,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.553773%27 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Eagles79c13,111$10,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Cowboys22c11,963$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.792441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Cowboys21c11,573$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430.418343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Eagles79c10,127$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.588648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Eagles79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1001681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick68cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Eagles79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10019553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Eagles80c9,500$7,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.883464.7%22 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ed…f1bdbacked Eagles78c9,494$7,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.383100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd8…4bf1backed Eagles80c9,191$7,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.141384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+55.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Cowboys21c9,160$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.611252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Cowboys21c9,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8908959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Eagles74c8,718$6,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.5860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Eagles77c8,661$6,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.411643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd7…a65ebacked Eagles78c7,865$6,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.3887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick74cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Eagles79c7,330$5,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.229359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Eagles76c7,262$5,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.919551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Eagles80c7,168$5,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.6666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Cowboys25c6,854$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.774553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Eagles74c6,722$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.9714763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Eagles79c6,629$5,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.0634349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Eagles79c6,112$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.3719361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Cowboys32c5,964$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.674165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Eagles77c5,907$4,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.8613430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Cowboys19c5,285$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.184131.7%13 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+86.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0627…1ecabacked Eagles79c5,256$4,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.861566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Eagles80c5,157$4,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.546245.2%28 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Eagles79c5,063$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.297755.8%43 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Cowboys22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10028447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Eagles80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00019864.6%128 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Cowboys32c4,333$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.6710026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Cowboys24c4,165$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.183759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Eagles76c4,078$3,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.376245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Cowboys20c4,077$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.733328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Cowboys21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.993948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf4a…4d9ebacked Cowboys13c3,958$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Cowboys21c3,896$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.161741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Eagles79c3,755$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.6431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Eagles80c3,740$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7483863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Eagles76c3,681$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.5714355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Eagles67c3,523$2,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.6764747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Eagles80c3,500$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6a…1a00backed Eagles79c3,282$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.161346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Cowboys16c3,216$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.6614926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Eagles79c3,038$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.9822838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Cowboys21c2,866$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.012744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+60.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97b6…59b4backed Cowboys26c2,725$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.912920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Eagles80c2,676$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.8617144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…7465backed Cowboys33c2,615$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.47850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…20efbacked Eagles80c2,556$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f7…4899backed Eagles79c2,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.65825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Eagles79c2,525$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.351163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Cowboys22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Eagles79c2,400$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50426857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.