TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7abe…b47e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
403
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST22852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 228 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,280Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+340%+$4,352.12
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in Home Runs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Elly De La Cruz lead the MLB in steals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will the Texas Rangers make the 2025 MLB playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$203.28
Will the New York Yankees make the 2025 MLB playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$9.2
Padres vs. Rockiesbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$78,833Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$35,417.5
Athletics vs. Angelsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46,007Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+116.1%+$53,397.23
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18,690Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+89.7%+$16,770.04
Dodgers vs. Oriolesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$24,640
Mets vs. Redsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$64,179Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$64,178.5
Athletics vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39,769Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$39,769.28
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacksbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$65,286Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$65,286
Dodgers vs. Oriolesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$51,537Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$51,536.5
Guardians vs. Raysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$37,872Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$37,871.96
Phillies vs. Marlinsbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$75,872Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+47%+$35,664.17
Mariners vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$38,246Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$35,304
Angels vs. Royalsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$957.65
Braves vs. Cubsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$9,870Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$13,629.98
Mariners vs. Raysbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11,342Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,342
Blue Jays vs. Redsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$73,969Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+70.5%+$52,170.83
Angels vs. Royalsbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$44,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$44,625
Blue Jays vs. Redsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22,790Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$20,210
Guardians vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$78,212Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$35,138.5
Angels vs. Astrosbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27,956Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$20,244
White Sox vs. Twinsbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55,205Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55,205
Showing 25 of 228 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST3435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$49.76
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$17.8
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$49.69
Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$47.54
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl be from New York/New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$511Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$511
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$19.79
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$10.04
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$521.41
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$4,524.51
Will the New York Jets finish with the worst record in the NFL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+49.7%+$70.43
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$60.18
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$233.98
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,903Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,902.54
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$44.82
Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$5,546Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+72.3%+$4,008.1
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will the New England Patriots make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$64.7
Will the San Francisco 49ers make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+58.7%+$50.07
Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+150%+$122.7
Will the Minnesota Vikings make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$470
Will the New York Giants win 6 or more regular season games?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+100%+$100
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win 10 or more regular season games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$461Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+116.9%+$539
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,416Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$2,415.77
Will the Washington Commanders make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$464.4
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.13
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30,546Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30,546.12
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,278Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$2,277.81
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23,020Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+177.8%+$40,927.12
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$101.06
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,041Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+47.4%+$966.35
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,663Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$1,142.54
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.32
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.82
Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.77
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.16
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$6,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$4,000
Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.44
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.31
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.05
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.98
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$68.31
All 21 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$710Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$710
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+575.9%+$1,071.84
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$18.39
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+245.4%+$25.8
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Will Sunderland be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.15
Will Burnley be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.97
Will Tottenham finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$52.29
Will Brighton win on 2025-08-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,885Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,885.1
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$45,999.96
Will Brighton win on 2025-08-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$24.6
Will Brentford vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$7,619Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,618.65
Will West Ham vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.25
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$64,144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$64,143.93
Will Everton win on 2025-08-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$473.14
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$6,861Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,860.92
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$110,410Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+53.6%+$59,125.74
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$21.59
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$151,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$151,873.89
Will Wolves vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.69
Will Brighton win on 2025-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$912.92
All 21 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$96,287Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$26,631.14
Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+131.1%+$985.27
Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$5,877Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+25.3%+$1,486.95
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$138,642Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+29.8%+$41,384.06
Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.67
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.21
Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$520.25
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$176,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$176,900
Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$8,583Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+29.2%+$2,507.62
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$186,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$186,165.13
Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+40.3%+$206.22
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$64,260Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$88,739.43
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$89,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$89,274.73
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$8,238Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+54.1%+$4,458.89
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$729Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$728.64
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38,000Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$11,999.99
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Osaka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15,319Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,319.24
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatekbacked Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,698Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,698.4
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritzbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$84,920Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+36.1%+$30,670.51
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+100%+$3,080
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 Lexus Eastbourne Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.57
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 Mallorca Championships?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+25%+$20
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 Mallorca Championships?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$18.5
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 HSBC Championships?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.1
All 12 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$472.29
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.32
Will Atalanta finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$7.13
Will Pisa be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$225
Will Inter finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$755Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$754.87
Will Inter win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$113,849Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$113,849
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$42,500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$20,000
Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18,788Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$12,012
Will Juventus vs. Parma end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.11
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$24.94
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$283.1
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$751,859Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+27.9%+$209,947.2
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$405.97
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$29,181Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+40.9%+$11,938.96
NBA Finals: Will any game go to overtime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$319.94
Which conference wins NBA Finals?backed West · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$7,863Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+37%+$2,908.27
NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$104.11
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,654Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$2,784.76
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$48,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$48,056.34
All 10 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.47
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2025 Tour Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$652Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+209.7%+$1,367.82
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 BMW Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.16
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75,084Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+33.2%+$24,916.2
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2025 PGA TOUR Rocket Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.25
Will Sam Burns win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,213Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+85.9%+$7,054.79
Will Adam Scott win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+34%+$15.43
Will Tyrrell Hatton win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.09
U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy backed Scheffler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$60
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Poker — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick71cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT+56.8%+$32.6
Will India win the match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
ICC World Test Championship: Australia vs. South Africabacked South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,335Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$409.89
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Aug 27, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Aug 28, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PAOK win on 2025-08-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36,000
Will PAOK vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.86
Will SC Braga win on 2025-08-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
All 3 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+178.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$31,312Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+74.4%+$23,294.06
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,516Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+283%+$4,289.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$123.78
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,121.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$18.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2025 Leagues Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+79.7%+$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$1,400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2025-09-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.94
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.