NHL · resolved market
Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d7343d2f5f0d4cbdd4266c7a4d76bfebcf56727c0218c8be889cad0a7d3334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 28c | 41,539$11,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,528.34 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 15,515$4,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,618.78 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 72c | 13,377$9,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750.54 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 72c | 9,000$6,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.44 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 9c | 3,976$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.82 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 73c | 3,852$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.39 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 71c | 3,228$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 11c | 3,045$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.97 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 71c | 2,500$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…1a77backed No | 74c | 1,979$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 72c | 1,603$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.77 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 1,483$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 10c | 1,195$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 25c | 1,111$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed Yes | 12c | 752$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 71c | 718$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 6c | 656$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125b…4009backed Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Yes | 13c | 535.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 29c | 466.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 376$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 11c | 364.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 211.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 195.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…9db5backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…672abacked No | 79c | 97.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-1?this page
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-0?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-2?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-3?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-0?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-2?Yes won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.