NHL · resolved market
Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb6ae2ed7322cbbae9f823b2798c17f7fa1f9f0c4fdf7f17d805d47eaf7f8a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 6c | 26,332$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 6c | 16,016$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.67 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 6c | 14,710$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.71 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,388$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 4c | 2,222$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 2,131$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,103$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,262$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,237$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 7c | 1,042$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…ba4abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 5c | 812.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed Yes | 8c | 749.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 6c | 504.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…5172backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 5c | 470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 7c | 380$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…6792backed Yes | 6c | 357$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 275.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 5c | 249.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 9c | 211$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes | 10c | 203.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…e5febacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-0?this page
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-2?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-3?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-0?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-1?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-2?Yes won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.