NHL · resolved market
Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6fea7b5a2f2825c0c755e8df801272c4861ee14f1888622c62802d2bc9a55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 8,079$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,429.65 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 26c | 6,028$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,436.08 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,737$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 49c | 1,692$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.49 | 284 | 40.1%114 W · 170 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 1,136$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.06 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 47c | 930$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 786.35$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.85 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 40c | 621.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.59 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 79c | 620$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 75c | 607.09$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.39 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 540$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…5682backed Yes | 19c | 530$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 69c | 425.6$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 48c | 370.13$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.87 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…a458backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…6e5fbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…672abacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 72c | 130.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 50c | 119.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 56c | 114.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked No | 44c | 101.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 30c | 82.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 29c | 66.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…1e46backed Yes | 29c | 55.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32bd…9cb2backed No | 72c | 54.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…2681backed No | 72c | 31.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 56c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 72c | 16.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-2?this page
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-0?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-2?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-3?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-0?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-1?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.