NHL · resolved market
Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c65707271580530eefac37d61d0eddeef231029342d6ffa5508d4523f305cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 23c | 11,166$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.17 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 77c | 11,091$8,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 5,518$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.4 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aabbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,347$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.8 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 20c | 2,100$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,653$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,261$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…e43fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 863$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 9c | 812$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 783$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…ebb1backed Yes | 16c | 694.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8bbfbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 16c | 543.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 16c | 331.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…26aabacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 207$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 203.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…9f73backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…672abacked Yes | 17c | 187.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…ab53backed Yes | 24c | 167$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…2dacbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…6e0bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…b655backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6068…28fdbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb047…3cb4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ec…b90ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-2?this page
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-0?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1?No won
- Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-3?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-0?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-1?No won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-2?Yes won
- Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.