Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e0d7de7bb40128de91aedced917f4b8e47918ba6ab6fd4d8efc61ffe7740c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $309,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $322,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 66c | 25,636$16,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,840.84 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 63c | 17,787$11,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,517.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 30c | 16,419$4,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,972.18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 26c | 9,505$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 66c | 7,207$4,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2b…535fbacked No | 8c | 6,122$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fce…6a98backed No | 28c | 5,320$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked No | 27c | 4,971$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 2c | 4,818$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 11c | 4,716$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.91 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 4,598$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed No | 38c | 4,506$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 59c | 4,484$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed No | 35c | 4,155$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 71c | 4,030$2,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…74b2backed No | 27c | 3,654$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed No | 25c | 3,627$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 61c | 3,379$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bd8ebacked No | 1c | 3,271$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 44c | 3,062$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 37c | 2,979$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 50c | 2,496$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd690…ad2abacked No | 33c | 2,468$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,441$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 75c | 2,377$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.16 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 27c | 2,200$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed No | 35c | 2,168$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…9a00backed No | 22c | 2,075$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 26c | 1,927$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.64 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 27c | 1,885$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 27c | 1,811$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,761$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 60c | 1,757$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.37 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,750$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…afe7backed No | 31c | 1,703$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 2c | 1,700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 30c | 1,633$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 16c | 1,554$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 37c | 1,552$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed No | 45c | 1,521$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 29c | 1,500$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.1 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca3…d3c8backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 72c | 1,500$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 1,395$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 33c | 1,389$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 29c | 1,385$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,296$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 80c | 1,244$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…9093backed Yes | 74c | 1,121$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 34c | 1,048$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 75c | 1,016$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +407%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…2814backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 73c | 999.99$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x665c…e3afbacked No | 37c | 887.18$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 57c | 858.32$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.76 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 15c | 820$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked No | 37c | 700$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Yes | 73c | 696.88$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.03 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 75c | 655.98$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 45c | 648$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 41c | 617.58$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.75 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 69c | 599.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 42c | 599.98$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.99 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 27c | 593.62$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 71c | 563$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…2dc8backed No | 28c | 544.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked No | 59c | 544.8$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…34dcbacked No | 27c | 543$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…846dbacked No | 66c | 506.44$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 76c | 500.1$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…930abacked No | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 52c | 487$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed No | 28c | 474.36$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…6006backed Yes | 68c | 469.64$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 72c | 459.15$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 29c | 449.72$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 72c | 438.45$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 21c | 424$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed No | 26c | 418.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…0dc5backed No | 27c | 415.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 63c | 392.33$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…a5f8backed No | 65c | 382.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed No | 70c | 374.73$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7907…5a66backed No | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed No | 32c | 369.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +320.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…8550backed No | 11c | 360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 69c | 350$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 74c | 344.81$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 27c | 332.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 73c | 331.63$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…3464backed No | 62c | 327.42$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.