TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x96e0…b648

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
214
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 53 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST4544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$326.5
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+191.6%+$325.68
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$269.77
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$320
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+58.7%+$204.3
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$329.4
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$268.41
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+179.2%+$687.84
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+330.1%+$1,165.38
US-Iran nuclear deal before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$192.01
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.42
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.83
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the U.S. take a stake in Intel by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.79
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+49.8%+$21
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,868Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+43%+$802.81
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.95
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.12
Nothing Ever Happens: Julybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.57
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+108.5%+$255.52
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$983Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+214.9%+$2,112.02
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$595.07
Will Stephen Colbert be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$746.84
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT4316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+483.5%+$317.77
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$74.43
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$69.25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$149.99
Will Sriram Krishnan be the next CEO of X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.31
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$134.99
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.5
Grok 5 released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+127.2%+$609.12
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$759.58
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$301.82
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$973.82
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$117.87
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$75.5
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25.8%+$89.22
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$783Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+58.2%+$455.75
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$218.86
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$364.29
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$34.13
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+163.2%+$186
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$467.9
GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$145
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.71
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT3333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.58
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$73.76
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$622Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$622.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$339.8
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$57.87
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$258
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$78
US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+132.6%+$62.69
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.59
Will Syria hold national elections before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.37
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$135
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$4,550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+35.6%+$1,618.62
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,144Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+90%+$1,029.57
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.25
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$342.05
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+300%+$813.17
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.76
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.12
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$240.17
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+122.2%+$55
Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+76.4%+$508.69
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$408
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$171.39
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.3%+$54.38
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120.9
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$700.51
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$120
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,534Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,534.43
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$50.54
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$214.44
Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$904Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$903.79
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$721Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$721
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$261
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$507.6
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$1,550.02
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,121Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+68.4%+$767.05
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$30
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$452.98
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+78.6%+$219.98
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$145
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.4
Lula out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.21
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.73
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$146.02
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,351.13
South Korean President impeached by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+37%+$147.02
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$68
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+117.4%+$108
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2024, EST-100%-$84.68
Will Alexandr Stoianoglo win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2024, EST-100%-$37.56
Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$163.74
James Cleverly next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$86.36
Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT+54%+$441.65
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+297%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.98
Megaquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$196
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$254.01
Megaquake before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+3,603.7%+$875.7
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,163Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+34.7%+$404.01
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+27.6%+$81
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+162.2%+$216.48
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-72%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.64
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+124.2%+$166.2
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$78.67
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$10.5
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$27.6
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$16.1
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office?backed Mufasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$135.1
All 8 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$9,990Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$9,989.83
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$902Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$902.16
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$191.99
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+474.7%+$210.45
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$63
All 8 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+125.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$32
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$68.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+90.7%+$166.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$191.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.