World Politics · resolved market
James Cleverly next Conservative party leader?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f67d768903aec8a640b4777c1695e29215b435eb892eb259f3392142f32069f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 41,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 26,652$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…cb60backed Yes | 0c | 19,763$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e0…d504backed Yes | 0c | 19,448$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 0c | 7,103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 1c | 6,008$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…a134backed Yes | 0c | 3,599$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 11c | 2,041$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.52 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,917$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.11 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,250$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…6552backed Yes | 9c | 1,104$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…d801backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 717.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 37c | 671.81$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.53 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 11c | 650$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 12c | 581.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 60c | 487.75$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…ef21backed Yes | 15c | 476.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 12c | 408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…eb38backed Yes | 32c | 387.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 26c | 337.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 246$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…fb20backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b6…5f4ebacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a10dbacked Yes | 46c | 76.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +225.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…559abacked Yes | 33c | 39.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…61b7backed Yes | 51c | 38.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 48c | 38.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…a25abacked Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Cleverly next Conservative party leader?this page
- David Cameron next Conservative party leader?No won
- Jeremy Hunt next Conservative party leader?No won
- Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?Yes won
- Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader?No won
- Priti Patel next Conservative party leader?No won
- Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader?No won
- Suella Braverman next Conservative party leader?No won
- Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader?No won
- Will someone else be the next Conservative party leader?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.