TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes26c5,000$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes21c2,868$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-65.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd16…a2cdbacked No43c2,674$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.95450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes50c2,368$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.454143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes41c2,348$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.229721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes34c2,003$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.391275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+210.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0efd…d478backed Yes14c1,793$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d5…682bbacked Yes14c1,631$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No61c1,600$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.523821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x505d…f8c4backed Yes34c1,412$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Yes27c1,400$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.541741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes18c1,188$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.431442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf566…1386backed Yes35c1,146$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes45c951.56$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.397345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c885.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.541,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes21c761.75$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.741625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…7fe1backed Yes13c680$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7a…65a6backed No44c642.14$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85db…ef21backed Yes46c634.53$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.95837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No56c633.86$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.332744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e79…2bb8backed Yes36c600$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e5…cb71backed Yes14c579.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x141b…7918backed Yes12c499.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ab…a477backed Yes25c428.29$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c348.91$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.641,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceef…ec6dbacked Yes19c315.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff9f…3b8abacked Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f30…58afbacked Yes33c299.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf40…004cbacked No44c288.67$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.32728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes36c264$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.042927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5b…5d78backed Yes20c253.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a57…695fbacked Yes35c251.43$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa66a…be53backed No64c250$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.52339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes35c223.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.02449.1%4 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick10cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c5d…c4abbacked Yes13c210$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb020…92f3backed No65c201.65$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f76…33c5backed Yes36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No78c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-75.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ea6…5086backed Yes35c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ea…4684backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c0…2b13backed Yes34c174.39$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd42…1514backed Yes18c170$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes13c155$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes15c150.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.39237%34 W · 58 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19fe…809ebacked No64c150$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb16e…a134backed Yes13c147.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes14c138.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1213118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8788…dc26backed Yes38c132.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43bd…215fbacked Yes16c125.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0afe…a614backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…2c90backed Yes14c108.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf083…0f66backed Yes28c106.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6157636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2c…3544backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6c7…c812backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…aca8backed Yes14c93.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c98…35bebacked Yes53c86.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+196.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed No64c86.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x191b…6552backed No44c85.63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d0…75f2backed Yes35c79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a5…12a7backed Yes21c70.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ec…559abacked No47c68.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f1…8ec6backed Yes20c65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7987…e367backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202020%4 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.55437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6c…287fbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac5…463cbacked Yes33c45.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb936…eb1abacked Yes35c44.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes24c42.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe929…b944backed No45c39.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed No47c36.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7921…4265backed Yes56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No65c34.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.13948.7%19 W · 20 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+18%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x90d3…7163backed Yes37c34.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf78…7723backed Yes36c33.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf087…40f5backed No79c30.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.49650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+219%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7426…5252backed Yes51c30.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88bc…3990backed Yes33c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab1f…68dcbacked Yes38c29.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes49c24.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c2…f360backed Yes59c19.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.