TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7987…e367

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST2020%4 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+26.6%+$26.58
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$301
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+542.8%+$542.81
Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$327
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,198.81
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$49.71
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+642.4%+$3,372.84
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
South Korean President impeached by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.