TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,199 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x02e8…d63ebacked No19c3,624$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.77825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes77c2,417$1,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,862.12152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No55c1,826$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+335.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked No28c1,562$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.41030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No9c1,459$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.131936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+87%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes76c1,437$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.2315230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No19c1,395$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.682642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked No28c1,311$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No18c1,226$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.431346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No54c1,112$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.834045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No14c1,099$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.015527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No10c1,088$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.782560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa069…1e59backed No9c1,083$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+569.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked No38c1,064$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.92429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No13c1,020$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.573917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked Yes7c700$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.72250%11 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes74c681$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.093132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7987…e367backed No16c642.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.812020%4 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No7c626.66$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.798123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No10c600$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No10c571.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.437238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04e…c7e2backed No10c505.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+911.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de1…5decbacked No20c502.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+138.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes41c487.45$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.881546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a2…af45backed No58c441.73$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No8c410$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3792536%9 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes60c375$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.71729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No19c372$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.657254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fb…71b7backed No41c367.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc53…72b4backed No8c362.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,216.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No30c343$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.035664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No35c333.84$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.341376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x104f…c0a7backed No9c307.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,057.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…8569backed No11c300$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick11cpaid+852.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed No59c296.18$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x257f…12fcbacked No14c290$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+331.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No31c263$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.35653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes78c256.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No29c249.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.997047.1%33 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes76c248.33$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8a…3009backed No9c222.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.221526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+55.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd098…3307backed No11c209.71$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.711154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick25cpaid+166.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No51c203.33$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.224050%20 W · 20 L+7.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+74.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1384450%22 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x57b7…fcf0backed No54c184.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x380e…1669backed No56c178.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…9938backed No20c176$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No7c168.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9938023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca8…ecd4backed No9c166.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+140.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x691e…d59dbacked Yes76c166.03$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.41580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…be47backed No15c158.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.98616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes46c157.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No13c157$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8314033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No12c149.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.9927828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes42c145.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.325633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1393…f7fcbacked No19c135$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes70c130$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914427.3%12 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f3…4956backed No31c129.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.13425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e10…e039backed No58c126.74$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f9e…90d3backed Yes80c125.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcce9…9e9cbacked Yes70c120.28$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.74560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419d…7817backed No12c117.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+109.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5734…f13abacked Yes74c112.07$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick74cpaid-60.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No36c110$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+110.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6359…de88backed No80c108.74$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.751127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes55c103$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.35560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d7…5762backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c6e…5c3dbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+126.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes46c99.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.896741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb428…5e88backed No11c98.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.915100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+222.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed Yes49c98.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No33c98.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.959248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31f…094cbacked No29c87.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+250.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1804…bd47backed Yes43c84.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.731758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes33c82.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.22580%20 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x856b…07f4backed No75c75.03$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed No28c70.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.921330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No54c69.71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.93944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12b…e7cfbacked No29c68.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+231.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes44c61.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.191442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc75…b64dbacked No20c61.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+410.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed No61c60.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f40…6e9ebacked No26c56.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.771376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.191,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9858…1f46backed No54c55.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No54c55.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Yes49c53.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9721…9c1fbacked No30c49.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+228.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e5…0b07backed Yes75c47.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.38650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb5…ed22backed No56c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked No64c44.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9d…e979backed Yes45c44.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+71.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No51c42.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215226.9%14 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes52c42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.042634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed Yes74c41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.39850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5874backed Yes49c40.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3110038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f1…c8f4backed Yes68c36.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes47c35.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.471258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.