World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dffbcce1d6720ec06000fb6ec2553fb6a707c6b6dd868e8a873dc57544dcaa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc458…ef36backed No | 69c | 50,344$34,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,606.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a5…192ebacked Yes | 31c | 50,344$15,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,606.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 74c | 1,700$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 26c | 1,599$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.24 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,430$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.6wins | -0.30per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 1,200$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 78c | 870$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.3 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 21c | 736.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 64c | 499.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 450$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 42c | 404.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed No | 64c | 399.8$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 41c | 375$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 363.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 17c | 354.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 45c | 318.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…1c93backed No | 77c | 259.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 25c | 231.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86f…38e1backed No | 57c | 228.12$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 33c | 118.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 24c | 109.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 25c | 102.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…3df8backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 40c | 97.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 15c | 95.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…ff82backed Yes | 36c | 86.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 74.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 75c | 66.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 47c | 63.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…ea62backed Yes | 24c | 61.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf27…5f0fbacked No | 53c | 37.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 64c | 35.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4b…fe6ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by May 31?this page
- Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?No won
- Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.