TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6cbb…89ab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
184
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tennis, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST6526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.08
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.98
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+91.4%+$500
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+506.5%+$1,239.41
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$484.87
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500.72
Will Stephen Miller be next National Security Advisor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$56.7
Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$16.5
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$560.99
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,276Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,275.54
US forces in Yemen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.81
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+157.1%+$439.14
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$289
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+476.9%+$49.6
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$714.08
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$9,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,115.6
Andrew Cuomo charged before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.59
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$258.41
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$4,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,746.31
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,013Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+45.8%+$464.08
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 7 and July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.34
Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.02
Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.75
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$511Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$510.84
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$3,863Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,863.43
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lee Jae-myung impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$628Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.3%+$171.64
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$163.17
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$662.33
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$57
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$68.82
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.84
Will the next government of Suriname be something else?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.24
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,087Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+31.4%+$655.36
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$157.59
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.35
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,226.43
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 30% and 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.05
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,401Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+226.3%+$3,170.4
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,011.85
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,994Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,993.66
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.07
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17,955Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$17,954.94
Lee Jae-myung out as Democratic Party presidential candidate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$475.94
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.74
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.47
Will Canada raise tariffs on the U.S. before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.24
Will Canada lower tariffs on the U.S. before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$145.01
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.21
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.39
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123.97
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,428Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,427.54
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$824Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$824.27
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$222.97
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.86
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+64.2%+$15.64
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$76,439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$76,438.92
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+845.3%+$657.5
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,582Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+398.4%+$6,302.93
Israel military action against Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.6
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.54
Another Israel military action on Yemen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.47
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$231.11
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,898Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,898.44
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.8
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$604.03
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$9,698Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,697.66
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.21
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$2,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,447.49
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$316.29
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,202.92
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$570.34
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,942Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+86%+$2,531.14
All 25 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nord Stream pipeline turned on in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.5
Will Russia invade Finland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.76
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+391.8%+$222.91
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,823Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,823.43
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$41.07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,178Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,178.35
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$953Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$953.27
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36
Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$386.86
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.35
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,120.92
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.04
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.79
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,198.55
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$462.98
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+37.9%+$11
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT+51.3%+$216.37
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,615Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,615.42
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$5,271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,271.25
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.06
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$265.56
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$8,767Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+37.3%+$3,271.54
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.7
NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,914Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+35.3%+$676.15
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+44.8%+$34.36
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.15
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.33
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Nuggets (To Advance)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$283.43
NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks (To Advance)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$148
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Warriors (To Advance)backed Twolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$95.91
All 11 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+119.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump bans China from buying US farmland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.96
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+62.7%+$19.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$279.02
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+50%+$32.34
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Europa League Finalbacked Tottenham · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+146.2%+$583
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+92.5%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$828Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$828.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.01
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.