Middle East · resolved market
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa245258eafc41a6c4959620117a39ce838acfd9069be63e4cf6add36ee285426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 27c | 8,285$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.92 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 37c | 7,639$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.55 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,899$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 68c | 5,807$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.78 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 12c | 3,385$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.81 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 24c | 3,383$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.59 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 68c | 2,929$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.67 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 15c | 2,238$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.44 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.76 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 2,021$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.74 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 7c | 1,778$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…ea89backed No | 68c | 1,610$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 65c | 1,306$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.06 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 9c | 1,253$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked No | 78c | 1,170$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 10c | 1,163$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 7cpaid | +413.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 11c | 1,089$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,025$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 13c | 991.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 34c | 966.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.02 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 76c | 912.35$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 17c | 744.66$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…9498backed Yes | 15c | 591.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 48c | 553.88$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.49 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ca…2bf7backed No | 19c | 516.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.87 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 12c | 495.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 14c | 495.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b1c8backed Yes | 7c | 478.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 12c | 465.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 449.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8880…0580backed Yes | 16c | 439.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 389.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 6c | 388.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 9c | 370$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.59 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 369.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.58 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 4c | 317$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 14c | 303.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…b2ccbacked Yes | 7c | 290.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…68fdbacked Yes | 6c | 261.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 260$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 26c | 205$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed No | 43c | 199.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.97 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 19c | 188.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 8c | 152.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 15c | 134.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 75c | 108.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 77c | 100.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…3ec8backed Yes | 22c | 88.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…5241backed Yes | 29c | 71.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 23c | 60.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed No | 20c | 53.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…d571backed Yes | 28c | 36.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 69c | 32.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…0965backed No | 80c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.