TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe71c…dcec

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Champions League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$909Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$909.38
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+37.2%+$55.82
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$454Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$356.94
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.79
Will Trump announce a general Tariff on imports on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+400%+$48
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+327.4%+$38.3
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+176%+$186.08
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,247.04
Will Trump nominate Brandon Williams for Labor Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$105.8
Will Trump nominate Bryan Slater for Labor Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+40.8%+$9.38
Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$87.41
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+72.9%+$113.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2024, EST520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-67.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2024, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Steelers vs. Commandersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+35.3%+$28.27
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+25.8%+$12.3
Steelers vs. Raidersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+61.9%+$50.75
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$418.19
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+185.9%+$640.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+45.5%+$332
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.