TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$869,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$917,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $869,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 548 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes20c83,594$17,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,048.353941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes43c74,597$31,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,766.469815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No74c43,884$32,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,211.373135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No69c43,383$29,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,604.4116743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1513…5208backed No62c24,093$14,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,258.271926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x210f…9d6abacked Yes32c22,187$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,099.742065%13 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+120.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcbeb…e6e0backed No73c21,540$15,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,908.66742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes16c20,794$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,258.5426423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No68c20,419$13,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,490.1410150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked No63c18,625$11,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,915.613036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No44c18,097$8,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,061.482445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes5c17,760$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9591788.2%15 W · 2 L+10.6wins+0.62per pick26cpaid+259.4%equal weight78+0.25 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes9c16,348$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.022810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed No75c14,959$11,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,774.262755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes21c14,959$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,144.831855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes12c14,954$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.21513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes23c14,709$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,316.372142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No74c12,650$9,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.963243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes37c11,959$4,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,424.857032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff38…e01dbacked Yes54c11,395$6,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,184.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb259…fcf0backed Yes54c10,367$5,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,634.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64f…44a5backed Yes55c10,324$5,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,673.121225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes20c10,092$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.65121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes6c10,074$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.184214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.993770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd520…ac21backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+204.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa3…15edbacked Yes23c8,542$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,968.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked No60c7,184$4,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No75c7,023$5,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.15836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ec…29cdbacked No79c6,962$5,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.552528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No75c6,822$5,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.372552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d80…7210backed No60c6,182$3,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04eb…58a0backed Yes12c6,161$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.781118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcb…ee85backed No40c6,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No40c5,733$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,465.672263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4987…804bbacked Yes59c5,695$3,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,338.7650%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes1c5,635$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.356726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No33c5,204$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.743850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes10c5,006$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.895922%13 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No70c4,634$3,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.744042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed No54c4,363$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked Yes4c4,252$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf75…29c6backed Yes39c4,053$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.274355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No50c3,872$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.413644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes57c3,858$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.3637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a68…003abacked No40c3,729$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No74c3,500$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91513850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a5…a5bfbacked No65c3,331$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.761566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No59c3,100$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.995743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No38c3,002$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.092445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes52c2,946$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.1510639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2d…7b0abacked No75c2,920$2,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.923100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes29c2,853$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.4210444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x151c…a723backed Yes23c2,845$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed No46c2,831$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+36%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd44e…711bbacked No52c2,629$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…27babacked Yes63c2,600$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes59c2,582$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.642326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc497…767abacked No79c2,550$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+221.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc525…396fbacked No40c2,539$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.321353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1dc…7283backed Yes22c2,500$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.991717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed No41c2,313$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.845736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed No33c2,260$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.34785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+102.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No39c2,120$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.44257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No72c2,109$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.264546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed No70c2,104$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.372524%6 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed No47c2,087$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.55560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No51c2,008$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.933743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bd0…18cdbacked Yes38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb8…9d7cbacked No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7601100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa6…968dbacked No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d2…a2a8backed Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3726…cf8abacked No69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fb…4fd8backed No69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e8…c9fbbacked Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No77c2,000$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.592055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…cf78backed Yes30c1,999$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes6c1,973$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.053540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes20c1,935$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.613141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8630…fe33backed Yes26c1,909$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1151…4d25backed No71c1,908$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ad…8be9backed No73c1,900$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb8…c0e9backed Yes27c1,900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c1,881$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.6986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes46c1,751$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8061533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d7…5c2dbacked No77c1,700$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes38c1,576$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.7340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No65c1,566$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.531866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab0…8dc0backed Yes68c1,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No73c1,466$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.1651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9339…ed6fbacked No69c1,459$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.691435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20eb…9694backed No48c1,451$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd8…2994backed Yes38c1,438$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb67…aa22backed No63c1,401$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.081957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacbb…6a7abacked No71c1,400$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd049…5de7backed Yes4c1,334$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602520%5 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+101.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c6…a1eabacked No43c1,324$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes63c1,309$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb715…a663backed No46c1,234$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.971520%3 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x26b9…675abacked No74c1,220$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.