TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x128a…f49e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
180
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST3070%21 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$432Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+92.3%+$398.81
Heat vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+28.2%+$98.03
Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$315.87
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+31.3%+$76.05
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+29.9%+$23.75
Pelicans vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 126.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+92.5%+$120.13
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+35.1%+$33.02
Thunder vs. Warriorsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,375Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+29.2%+$694.55
Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 241.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+66.7%+$364
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+49.3%+$152.27
Celtics vs. Kingsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+25%+$400
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$199.98
Nuggets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,302.39
Magic vs. Pacersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,550Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+61.3%+$950
Timberwolves vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+49.3%+$478.29
Pistons vs. Lakersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,837Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25%+$459.24
Celtics vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$284.44
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$699.81
Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+69.5%+$410
Warriors vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$470
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,212Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+74%+$896.82
Cavaliers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+33.3%+$366.68
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$111.55
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$357.37
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$287.61
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST2955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$65.48
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$359
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$630
Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 48.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$630
Bears vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,406Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+44.9%+$631.9
Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 72.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$552
Eagles vs. Billsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+85.2%+$460
Steelers vs. Browns: 1H O/U 18.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,423Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+75.5%+$1,828.89
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+124.2%+$664.67
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$81.73
Rams vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 22.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$811Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+72.7%+$589.44
Will Cooper Kupp get traded before the deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST+160%+$249
Bears vs. Commandersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$253.7
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$300
Ravens vs. Buccaneersbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT+35%+$155.61
Will the Bengals beat the Browns by 6 or more points?backed Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+100%+$300
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+108.3%+$520
Will the Jaguars beat the Patriots by 6 or more points?backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$94
Patriots vs. Jaguarsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$90
Will the Jaguars and Patriots combine for 42 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+85.2%+$276
Jaguars vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+86.9%+$465
Saints vs. Chiefsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$96
Cowboys vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$580
Ravens vs. Bengalsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT+74.8%+$428
Will Christian McCaffrey play Week 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$17.94
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST2070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+31.6%+$10.53
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+85.2%+$115
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+27.6%+$261.47
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+143.9%+$177
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+35.1%+$113.11
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$870Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+25%+$217.72
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.3%+$11
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+29.9%+$230
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+33.3%+$250
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$320
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+75.4%+$430.05
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,604Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+31.6%+$506.52
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$440
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$838Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$837.66
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$637Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+58%+$369.24
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$729Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$729.03
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+300%+$959.25
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+194.1%+$479.16
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$218.33
All 20 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1650%8 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
College Football — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 51.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+61.3%+$280.29
Navy vs. Cincinnatibacked Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,205Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+28.2%+$621.89
O/U 56.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,123.79
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,227.32
Spread: Texas (-7.5)backed Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$227.36
O/U 55.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,822Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$2,821.79
O/U 61.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$614Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+86.7%+$532.42
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Techbacked Louisiana Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,606Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+25.5%+$410.18
O/U 59.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+85.2%+$920.31
Alabama vs. Oklahomabacked Oklahoma · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$711Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$711.2
Will Iowa State beat UCF?backed UCF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$43.5
Will Iowa State beat UCF by 14 or more points?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$200
Will Alabama beat Tennessee?backed Tennessee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+47.1%+$192
Will Ohio St. beat Oregon?backed Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+143.9%+$330.4
Will Alabama beat South Carolina?backed S. Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$270
Will Utah beat Arizona State?backed ASU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+78%+$219.26
All 16 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$821Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+26%+$213.36
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200.2
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,404Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,403.54
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+187.8%+$391.01
Will Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$180.27
Auckland FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+161.1%+$573.35
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,326Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+27.6%+$366.12
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$742Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$742
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$782Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+35.1%+$274.96
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$631Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$630.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,010Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+49.3%+$989.99
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$900
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,666Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,666.3
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.85
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$153.32
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$388.69
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$520.37
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$703.77
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT+94.8%+$123.08
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross between $16-19m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$381.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2025, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,996Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,996.47
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,435Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$3,435.44
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,314Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+66.5%+$2,869.8
No Israel strike on Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,261Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT+58.6%+$739.08
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+124.4%+$831.42
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$8,859Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+33.4%+$2,960.43
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,203Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+55.5%+$1,223.35
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,474Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$4,473.52
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+29.2%+$225.87
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST6100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2024, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-64.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+39.1%+$154.44
AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+66.7%+$800
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$992Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$992.16
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,814Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$1,813.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rai Benjamin (USA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+100%+$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT+70.4%+$115.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brisbane International, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gastonbacked Arnaldi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$991Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+37%+$366.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AFC Ajax vs. Go Ahead Eagles end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+35.1%+$15.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,023Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+30.1%+$308.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,291.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seattle Redhawks vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsbacked Seattle Redhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$135.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Whittaker vs. Chimaevbacked Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,067.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$518.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$58.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.