NFL · resolved market
Will Cooper Kupp get traded before the deadline?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb5866f2feddf1efb6ab403de378bee0ade3645d56d5c9063c717f6c36f78449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dcd…268cbacked Yes | 68c | 677.56$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 38c | 404.6$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 29c | 352.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.94 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 350.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 77c | 326.65$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Yes | 24c | 313.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 45c | 306.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.55 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…81afbacked Yes | 66c | 257.38$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 78c | 222$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 179.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…fbf8backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…3238backed No | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Yes | 69c | 89.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…7f26backed No | 37c | 65.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…93fbbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaf…07c2backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…a092backed No | 38c | 54.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 63c | 51.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…3ba3backed Yes | 74c | 46.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 62c | 45.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…303cbacked No | 39c | 45.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…1fb9backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…daa7backed No | 33c | 30.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…03debacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…fe19backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.