TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Invictus Gamingof Invictus Gaming, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,467 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd537…0f7cbacked Invictus Gaming50c13,972$6,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,047.7333456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed LNG Esports28c9,664$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,677.971,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed LNG Esports35c8,386$2,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.3442050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Invictus Gaming67c7,044$4,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.9814056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce5…02b3backed LNG Esports1c6,798$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.981050%0 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked LNG Esports46c6,338$2,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.861,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdacd…a083backed LNG Esports50c5,856$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9283855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed LNG Esports50c5,082$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.1254353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Invictus Gaming80c5,019$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.853053.3%16 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Invictus Gaming58c4,840$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.931,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed Invictus Gaming62c4,767$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.9525560.8%155 W · 100 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked LNG Esports13c4,657$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…8a76backed LNG Esports34c4,497$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.543636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Invictus Gaming77c4,085$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.7220151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked LNG Esports3c3,800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Invictus Gaming50c3,357$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.738462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LNG Esports17c3,088$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.22,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed LNG Esports50c3,028$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.8821137.4%79 W · 132 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Invictus Gaming47c3,004$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5793,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…8ebcbacked LNG Esports51c2,998$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.9810133.7%34 W · 67 L-11.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked LNG Esports8c2,952$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1110445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5737…ad86backed Invictus Gaming56c2,833$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.42666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Invictus Gaming64c2,821$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.73063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfabf…2814backed Invictus Gaming77c2,645$2,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.485949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed LNG Esports7c2,538$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.2367276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed LNG Esports29c2,493$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.231741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Invictus Gaming50c2,372$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.696165.6%40 W · 21 L+8.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Invictus Gaming58c2,363$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.9485652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked LNG Esports3c2,155$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.551,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed LNG Esports35c2,121$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.671,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Invictus Gaming78c2,024$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.2475342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Invictus Gaming72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5606100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed LNG Esports52c1,927$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.8112338.2%47 W · 76 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06a8…2927backed LNG Esports37c1,926$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.953033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed LNG Esports50c1,916$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.297051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed LNG Esports54c1,810$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea63…682cbacked LNG Esports10c1,635$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0111440.4%46 W · 68 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed LNG Esports41c1,599$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.516338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b17…e2c1backed LNG Esports51c1,400$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7141060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Invictus Gaming78c1,334$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.2242840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x655c…8fbfbacked Invictus Gaming80c1,128$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.632055%11 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked LNG Esports42c1,100$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4656334.9%22 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed Invictus Gaming77c1,039$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9652747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Invictus Gaming66c1,013$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.3170752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Invictus Gaming79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21050569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Invictus Gaming51c1,000$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.150547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed LNG Esports51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.997759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc153…a179backed LNG Esports4c990.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.432441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked Invictus Gaming51c989.81$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.814445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfd3…2926backed LNG Esports43c930.71$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.481553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Invictus Gaming48c899.99$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46813747.4%65 W · 72 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bd…4886backed LNG Esports11c884.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked LNG Esports51c860.91$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.0613543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4716…3444backed Invictus Gaming69c807.24$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7262…3a0bbacked Invictus Gaming47c797$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.411850%9 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x924f…d049backed Invictus Gaming50c718.45$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.413762.2%23 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed Invictus Gaming63c707.5$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.9812661.1%77 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Invictus Gaming79c700.01$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2329536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed LNG Esports49c682$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.4430661.1%187 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd33…6c0dbacked Invictus Gaming50c626.88$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed LNG Esports51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30638837.4%145 W · 243 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Invictus Gaming51c588.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3740364.5%260 W · 143 L+0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Invictus Gaming76c585.35$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.3544843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed LNG Esports52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015846.8%74 W · 84 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed LNG Esports35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031855.7%177 W · 141 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Invictus Gaming70c571.2$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.22152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e10…b531backed Invictus Gaming62c570.55$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.591850%9 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Invictus Gaming78c564.19$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1911253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed LNG Esports3c562.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8781143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f0…3803backed Invictus Gaming50c560$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2822437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked LNG Esports51c553.36$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2220348.8%99 W · 104 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae7…35a9backed LNG Esports13c532.61$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702015%3 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed LNG Esports52c505.77$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26322349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked LNG Esports49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24511548.7%56 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Invictus Gaming78c430$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.61,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…8cfcbacked LNG Esports6c412.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed LNG Esports45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805545.5%25 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked LNG Esports51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed LNG Esports30c384.39$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4112433.9%42 W · 82 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0593…4892backed LNG Esports52c382.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010028%28 W · 72 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e573backed Invictus Gaming66c370$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.84647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Invictus Gaming69c369.81$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6670162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed LNG Esports32c341.17$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3139239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x521f…3344backed LNG Esports52c339.55$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3612647.6%60 W · 66 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2997…6c34backed Invictus Gaming76c326.65$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.410653.8%57 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6260…fed5backed Invictus Gaming68c308.87$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7116660.8%101 W · 65 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Invictus Gaming49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9146…7246backed LNG Esports46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1375536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x096f…5c68backed LNG Esports19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5721644%95 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed LNG Esports34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029348.4%45 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed LNG Esports40c300$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.615846.2%73 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed LNG Esports9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279735.1%34 W · 63 L-12.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Invictus Gaming51c292.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.516851.2%86 W · 82 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de1…2d12backed Invictus Gaming67c284.52$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.523663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2439…2e1fbacked LNG Esports25c264.46$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.386347.6%30 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3301…95bfbacked Invictus Gaming50c260$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1307736.4%28 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed LNG Esports53c252.46$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5450845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed LNG Esports13c250$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed LNG Esports41c245$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd185…e40bbacked Invictus Gaming76c240.41$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.654362.8%27 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.