TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,073,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,786,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,073,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,363 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes0c1,777,054$6,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,213.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Yes0c1,202,152$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c847,946$5,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,370.49450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+436.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes4c847,664$33,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,032.181414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes0c798,238$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.8550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c770,024$6,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,496.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dea…1ab4backed Yes1c604,952$5,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,678.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36df…6a3bbacked Yes0c540,000$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3305…31dabacked Yes1c521,424$6,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,045.54520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes1c511,994$2,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes1c480,517$4,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,139.281266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfd8…e65bbacked Yes0c471,000$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781580%4 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.58per pick22cpaid+329.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1913…b494backed Yes2c418,009$7,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,511.22825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124f…3661backed No55c383,853$209,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174,306.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…7cacbacked Yes1c382,096$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes1c351,307$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.982030%6 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Yes12c307,134$36,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,394.041145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick16cpaid+109.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3498…5088backed Yes0c301,111$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes4c294,920$12,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,941.84650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes0c289,155$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes1c284,008$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b11…96d8backed Yes1c263,540$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes17c244,786$41,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,265.241729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b5…a549backed Yes1c243,238$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…a4b9backed Yes1c237,498$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdab…10c8backed Yes0c234,653$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes3c230,295$7,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,949.071520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No77c225,362$174,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,879.871850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba4a…713dbacked Yes0c218,550$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9830…c450backed Yes0c216,174$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes1c214,959$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes25c209,196$51,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,334.151216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed Yes0c205,061$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes22c200,827$43,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,317.583132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ac…cfa6backed Yes0c190,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c1…5cefbacked Yes0c184,773$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8005…8de3backed Yes4c184,057$7,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,163.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d12…ab54backed Yes0c180,859$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821a…1f18backed Yes44c176,080$77,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,732.3150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No77c168,273$128,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,503.541560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c166,170$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.19650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes1c162,401$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.282828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd863…0e2cbacked Yes9c157,166$14,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,320.671020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7968…d714backed Yes1c153,232$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186a…7f19backed Yes0c152,631$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…d1cbbacked Yes1c148,740$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes32c141,968$44,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,993.721729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c141,391$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed No78c140,606$110,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,463.39475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8398…749abacked Yes0c129,196$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick6cpaid+354.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fa4…6e43backed Yes2c128,352$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes27c127,239$33,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,864.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes4c123,930$4,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,885.631020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x791d…d914backed Yes2c123,607$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes0c118,757$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes0c116,787$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfddf…f33dbacked Yes9c113,993$10,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,293.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+136.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes0c111,685$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.72812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…add9backed Yes1c107,550$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes20c102,425$20,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,929.132326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…53c1backed Yes1c99,693$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d63…348dbacked Yes5c99,111$4,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,495.981050%5 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+160.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a1a…2ffebacked Yes6c98,087$5,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,805.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes8c94,372$7,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,639.872941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes27c92,017$24,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,807.562937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4566…5319backed Yes0c90,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes22c89,949$19,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,963.484845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes0c85,667$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb52…92eebacked No58c85,293$49,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,786.83850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No75c81,287$60,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,524.874348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5a…b27bbacked Yes1c81,000$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea50…f79ebacked Yes1c80,988$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e77…482ebacked Yes2c79,574$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes37c79,133$29,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,512.392917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No69c79,124$54,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,721.793256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c78,642$12,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,929.058013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No62c78,304$48,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,703.071747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes44c75,780$33,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,212.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes39c74,928$29,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,284.881338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc310…8226backed Yes0c73,502$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes0c73,076$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.08812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-80.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes4c72,739$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.84520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes13c72,733$9,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,224.272030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa401…f271backed Yes1c72,543$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2b…527abacked Yes2c71,472$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e6…6894backed Yes1c71,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2329…eb12backed Yes0c71,303$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c4…ba3bbacked Yes7c70,248$5,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,050.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0efd…1567backed Yes5c70,139$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcefc…f6bcbacked Yes0c69,850$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f9…2697backed Yes1c69,641$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes0c69,149$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3142714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes9c69,075$5,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,957.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes7c68,234$4,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,908.411233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes0c67,333$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3da…ebb3backed Yes0c65,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0989…1b82backed Yes1c64,500$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.331330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fb…71b7backed Yes7c64,415$4,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,634.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5d…8f00backed Yes2c61,808$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.