TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,402 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes53c2,330$1,235 inWon+$1,094.99887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed No47c2,128$1,000 inLost-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes76c1,604$1,219 inWon+$384.961163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+200.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1917…75a6backed No25c1,600$400 inLost-$4001070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed No4c791.55$32 inLost-$32.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes75c623.2$467 inWon+$156.051384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick54cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd3f…e1eebacked No46c361$166 inLost-$166.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bcd…68c5backed No41c251$103 inLost-$102.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x570b…97f8backed No47c200$94 inLost-$94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes54c158.34$85 inWon+$72.9312425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c131.4$14 inLost-$14.458013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee5e…1792backed Yes59c126$74 inWon+$51.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa574…45d8backed Yes59c125$74 inWon+$51.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes53c66$35 inWon+$31.021030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No32c62.5$20 inLost-$205225%13 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes56c55.73$31 inWon+$24.754845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No37c54.05$20 inLost-$204027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No38c40.56$15 inLost-$15.413737.8%14 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+38%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes54c27.31$15 inWon+$12.566771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes53c20$11 inWon+$9.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.