TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$779,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$735,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $779,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes12c32,047$3,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,751.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes6c26,996$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.02140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes1c26,266$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes6c21,060$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.881145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick19cpaid+146%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes3c20,525$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.82825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes1c18,701$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.18616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes4c17,583$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.524316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes4c17,162$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.61175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes3c15,069$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.815121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked Yes7c13,812$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes14c13,056$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.0960%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes1c12,211$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed Yes2c11,000$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…f949backed Yes2c10,485$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49a8…7153backed Yes2c10,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0afe…f6f4backed Yes2c8,144$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes1c8,016$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.23219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes7c7,920$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2982…9896backed Yes1c7,856$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes5c6,511$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.412025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…5cffbacked Yes3c6,406$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c6,334$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.34248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes11c6,025$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.522917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes4c6,000$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.472030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes9c4,924$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.95460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf87…9200backed Yes16c4,119$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes10c4,089$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.544126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes10c4,025$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.63446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes6c4,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac28…b1a5backed Yes7c4,000$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f0…5d58backed Yes4c3,939$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes2c3,267$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes2c3,242$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.41702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes9c3,227$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes6c2,927$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0805…31c0backed Yes14c2,917$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6e…6b28backed Yes2c2,769$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes5c2,740$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.84911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-74.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes3c2,500$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes5c2,480$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.071560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes1c2,450$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f9…2697backed Yes19c2,445$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4691330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes2c2,438$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c2,344$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.758013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes1c2,262$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.391643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,212$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.071644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca2…f957backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a54…e07cbacked Yes6c1,905$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes12c1,769$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2155014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes5c1,762$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4c…4793backed No74c1,700$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes6c1,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes4c1,600$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes13c1,576$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes4c1,534$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaead…6695backed Yes3c1,454$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb76e…85e6backed Yes4c1,342$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf823…f9e9backed Yes8c1,309$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes4c1,286$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e5b…5030backed Yes4c1,263$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Yes7c1,253$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes3c1,205$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdc…bca2backed Yes3c1,170$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes11c1,168$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.811323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No78c1,152$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x109e…0a59backed Yes13c1,136$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No78c1,072$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.671838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec4…fa49backed Yes9c1,056$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9560%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd046…98b1backed Yes2c1,042$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes6c1,036$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes4c1,006$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+100.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes2c961.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00c…3802backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes14c900$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No79c900$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes11c887.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.761926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3577…4bd5backed Yes10c829.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2a…4ab7backed Yes16c812$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa333…bd25backed Yes9c787.04$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe535…96d3backed Yes6c711.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a6…19d7backed Yes2c707$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes11c693.86$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.01425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51b7…4393backed Yes4c644.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98b…c581backed Yes14c621.05$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes3c614.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4870%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52df…170ebacked Yes7c586.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d5…71f5backed Yes3c553.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef55…1b20backed Yes21c544.55$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1521…90e1backed Yes11c521.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes20c519.69$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes5c512.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd103…dc4fbacked Yes20c508.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.