TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7dc7…0a2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+120%+$120
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+117.4%+$117.39
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$30.65
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+352.8%+$179.96
Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Under 15% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$19.45
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 30%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+140.5%+$70.24
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$100
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Grok 4.20 released by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Grok 4.20 released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+809.1%+$161.82
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the US strike Venezuela next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US strike Mexico next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$19.98
Will the US strike Colombia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$54.98
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.21
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+375%+$187.5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+164.1%+$82.03
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+203%+$40.61
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+400%+$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+219.5%+$109.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.