TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,245 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes66c1,498$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.3123839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c1,366$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No74c1,095$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.591978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43a0…175dbacked Yes63c1,068$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.371050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No77c972.19$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.714355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes23c892.01$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.831879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No13c848.41$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.429626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes73c674$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.3415643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No62c555.09$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.887850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes21c553.02$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.512123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No35c464.6$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.184245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed Yes23c449.55$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.57354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No58c418$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd00…f843backed Yes73c356.51$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes42c330.49$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1823525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes12c330.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No42c310.62$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6221333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes40c270.58$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3515331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3379…72b9backed No38c267.14$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No25c260.77$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7534440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4502…2f4dbacked No54c258.33$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.151346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0a…5f58backed No55c254.13$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.131145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No21c237.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes17c212.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2431719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes43c212.74$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.241323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes56c209.81$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.36657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes41c209.06$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed No38c205.39$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.063135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked No42c204$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+111.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe6f…7495backed Yes67c200$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.443672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1071…42cebacked No14c189.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b8…4af7backed Yes72c174.06$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.194057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4dd…6934backed Yes12c170.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe625…e7c6backed No49c168.62$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No30c167.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.65942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef9…2d16backed Yes31c159.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7080…2a12backed Yes13c151.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes70c143.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82cc…236fbacked No28c140.19$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+263.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc7c…4ce2backed No75c135.55$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.513357.6%19 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed No74c134.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e51…ca50backed Yes15c133.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed No39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302e…e97fbacked Yes52c120.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes12c120$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb93a…251bbacked No50c111.07$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.071758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes22c109.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8113342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed No53c106.39$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.391450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x150a…e004backed Yes76c104.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f5f…4fe7backed No49c101.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc155…2f92backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes50c99.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes51c99.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes23c87.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef5…4a71backed Yes70c84.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf0…4c25backed No45c77.77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbcfa…520dbacked No27c73.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.47875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+68.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac6…d659backed Yes65c61.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa28c…c290backed No48c60.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.914940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdda9…35c9backed No62c59.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.63785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2cd…ee6dbacked Yes49c59.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes38c57.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8526616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeeb4…1ee7backed No35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.142552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked Yes39c53.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.754032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281450%7 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No75c49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.386061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c9…6d01backed No68c46.83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No25c40.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.886018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd57e…ecf2backed Yes75c37.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.88812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes73c35.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.756725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e73…10ccbacked No77c32.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e4…18e1backed No42c31.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes78c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54372.1%31 W · 12 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x860f…0a33backed Yes67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce3…429ebacked No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes55c26.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.332857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6a…fb9cbacked Yes76c26.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5673…98fdbacked Yes66c25.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9350%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9680…a3debacked Yes65c22.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes53c21.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.496342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes74c19.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.793534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5d4…2c02backed No77c19.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9c…580bbacked No52c19.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.316100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd924…9465backed No75c16.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.