TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a83…4c59backed No8c6,953$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.7942738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No19c6,000$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.765639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes76c5,244$3,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.7714335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No12c2,875$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.738237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes65c2,778$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.785042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No10c2,741$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.0217414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No7c2,585$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.961631.3%5 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.24per pick7cpaid+413.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf748…77dbbacked No15c2,521$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ac…ebacbacked No4c2,386$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+3,603.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No11c1,740$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked No3c1,560$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed No7c1,361$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.495616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked No17c1,289$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.842420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No15c1,085$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.036018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13017931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17038247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No8c950.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5114827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No13c827.04$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed No2c750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No10c750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…2552backed No49c679.24$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.281233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No61c641.31$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.732737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked No2c588.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed No22c587.05$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1275540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x509f…b73ebacked No53c510.35$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.151315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-77.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.241250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x720f…0aabbacked No15c490.34$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes56c482.29$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.285253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed No12c469.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No15c454.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5915331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No23c452.72$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc85a…afb1backed No36c450$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked Yes45c421.4$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.692740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes70c416.12$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.534678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed No29c406.63$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.026538.5%25 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No61c393.9$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24222262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes28c354.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.16752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2864…8527backed Yes79c338.17$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-57.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes71c333.81$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2710244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cc…0009backed No60c331.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c307.48$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aad…4245backed No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb12…6ce1backed No17c293.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…d808backed No17c275.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be2…49d4backed No6c254.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde4f…87ccbacked Yes37c250$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…49b1backed Yes43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…b3c4backed Yes37c250$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fa…8096backed Yes43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes32c238.07$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.4314940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b6…00dfbacked No5c234.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked No17c231.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.883537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1269…6aaabacked No22c226.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked No11c217.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.934151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x221f…d868backed No14c210.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes73c204.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.093839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked No25c192.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.553850%19 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes67c190$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.265244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee87…4d9fbacked No18c188.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes64c176.46$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.199647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No40c170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No13c160$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…2ed0backed No74c160$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f8…73dabacked No30c159.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No66c151.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004153.7%22 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes53c150$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf2…3343backed No20c143.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No25c141.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.356953.6%37 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc923…7154backed No15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No47c133.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7916447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf06…a200backed No17c117.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No26c114$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.643151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes44c113.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7917740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc479…e938backed No15c111.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No13c111.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x992f…7a1abacked No23c101.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes79c101.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6721034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes13c97.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.76825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes35c95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.29334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1fb…90c7backed No70c93.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.143636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed No14c93.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e9…227bbacked Yes51c91.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b1…29fdbacked No47c87.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7918…f39fbacked No69c87.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes57c74.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.849827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x245b…255bbacked No61c73.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes60c70.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf442…93abbacked No37c67.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed No25c66.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.843450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43dd…a1cfbacked No61c65.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4a…5d8ebacked No63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eca…b53cbacked No59c62.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2440828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.