Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a1bd28912f25515615443eb4083844c4310735f5cacd6a0ba87ba3b6ba49fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 5c | 1,981$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 27c | 1,592$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.27 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 74c | 1,508$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 3c | 1,295$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 5c | 1,263$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,119$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.94 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 17c | 499.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 7c | 429.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b3f0backed No | 71c | 368.02$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 366.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…291ebacked Yes | 33c | 337.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 310.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 23c | 251.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…79a0backed No | 71c | 249.44$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 45c | 234.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 44c | 228.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 152.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 20c | 141.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 58c | 140.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…be20backed Yes | 23c | 139.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 54c | 120.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 101.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 77c | 101.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…e399backed No | 76c | 97.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 75c | 89.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a3…0bacbacked No | 71c | 85.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed No | 62c | 80.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…b96fbacked No | 63c | 79.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…feb7backed No | 67c | 79.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…7957backed No | 77c | 76.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…8616backed No | 69c | 72.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 23c | 69.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…79abbacked No | 80c | 62.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…0229backed No | 80c | 62.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 26c | 58.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 54.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 21c | 52.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…3e28backed No | 69c | 50.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed No | 79c | 48.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 57c | 42.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 74c | 42.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…03afbacked No | 64c | 39.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…72c3backed No | 80c | 39.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cb…089fbacked Yes | 51c | 38.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed No | 64c | 32.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 67c | 29.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…5e9dbacked No | 74c | 28.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…8886backed No | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…ab94backed No | 68c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…8fa1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…608abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851f…e946backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…a694backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…12b4backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…8a23backed No | 61c | 19.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…536bbacked No | 74c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 76c | 13.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -14.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…03d3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.