TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,870
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,870 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c2,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No12c1,332$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.165330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes1c1,025$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7717414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9623525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e9…227bbacked Yes42c577.56$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.43742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b6…90f4backed Yes8c517.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Yes5c513.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8311418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c508.49$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5f6…4049backed Yes2c476.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes12c472.36$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8938237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No72c470.83$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.775253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fe…4716backed Yes3c431.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c79…99bcbacked Yes4c425.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Yes4c410$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c405.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes5c383.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes23c382.88$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.573935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Yes5c367.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes46c359.27$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes5c356.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.981879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No65c355.7$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7822262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes15c335.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4587…1922backed No64c320.98$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18017646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d5…c4c0backed No51c274$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.26966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+54.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdaa8…fc2dbacked No79c256.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No12c250$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2203151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x0d24…43d9backed Yes5c238.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8456…e61abacked Yes9c234.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes43c231.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfe7…d95abacked No48c209.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.374100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes33c192.69$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0915331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked Yes60c185.48$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.852740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No39c157$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.777035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes35c142.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.742738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes45c135.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.923625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x455f…bd63backed No65c117.06$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed No69c104.34$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.471450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes51c103.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5321926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes36c100.59$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.511,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3333337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes25c99.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c95.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c19…f9cdbacked Yes46c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No60c86.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.224678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f4c…6f0ebacked Yes48c82.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa11c…261bbacked No56c79.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f7…eac7backed No64c78.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.361050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes15c77.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x705c…8fe1backed No67c75.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b1…29fdbacked No42c68.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes30c67.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0913140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2eca…b53cbacked No58c60.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes57c54.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.239827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes39c53.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1225518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xddd8…31a4backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c88…383abacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc6…1a7dbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abc…a604backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb87e…fd1cbacked Yes44c38.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed No67c37.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes43c36.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6612152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No59c35.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.755743.9%25 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4854…0887backed Yes36c34.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4560%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53de…d34bbacked Yes51c30.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.46953.6%37 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca03…72e9backed No66c29.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed Yes39c28.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf899…6d7fbacked Yes42c27.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3360%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes44c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.526061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf09c…91fbbacked No59c25.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb2…abeabacked No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked Yes45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.253537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No80c24.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.032737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.228827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9016…e132backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fcd…de5ebacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid+40.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f0…0e43backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cef…af02backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.