Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1def85e5b4bdac3772f5913f32e460faa0b6347fa5fb7270b4c4b77e4748bda8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fa…d820backed Yes | 1c | 6,106$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…7f05backed No | 71c | 425.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 29c | 347.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 313.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 63c | 275.73$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…c45bbacked Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 31c | 229.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed No | 70c | 216.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 56c | 199.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 69c | 181.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa545…ba06backed No | 63c | 159.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 8c | 154.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 44c | 127.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 65c | 124.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 43c | 122.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…d823backed Yes | 37c | 122.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…b63bbacked No | 65c | 116.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…6e99backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes | 49c | 81.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed No | 68c | 81.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 21c | 74.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 55c | 63.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f94…ce11backed Yes | 66c | 60.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked No | 68c | 58.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…8046backed No | 65c | 52.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…a12cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 43c | 46.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed Yes | 30c | 40.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…5748backed No | 66c | 38.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…a23cbacked No | 70c | 38.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked No | 71c | 34.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes | 30c | 34.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…2b49backed No | 51c | 33.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7c…1fffbacked No | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…c224backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…fa13backed No | 69c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed No | 70c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…608abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…0001backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…8cc2backed No | 76c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.