Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefb8069dc9f4078feb6e990dc9aa4cb8acfcc0f066a61e03fa1283aea5974b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 3,362$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,015$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.71 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 58c | 669.63$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.24 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 10c | 669.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 612.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.31 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 33c | 375.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 361.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 3c | 345$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 20c | 331.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 314.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b3f0backed No | 65c | 305.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 71c | 300$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…f80fbacked No | 79c | 254.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607a…207ebacked No | 70c | 209.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…d9b0backed No | 66c | 192.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 60c | 185.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 18c | 177.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 75c | 162.36$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 34c | 158.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…53a7backed No | 67c | 150.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 130.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 99.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9585…c3a3backed Yes | 29c | 95.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…ef20backed No | 75c | 95.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…be20backed Yes | 31c | 91.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked Yes | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 41c | 74.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…8616backed No | 70c | 71.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 43c | 69.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…8fc2backed No | 64c | 62.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 59.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…1b1ebacked No | 68c | 58.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…56d8backed No | 73c | 52.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…bb76backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 64c | 48.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…2d34backed Yes | 41c | 48.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 58c | 48.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…92cfbacked No | 67c | 47.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…7b24backed No | 67c | 46.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…79abbacked No | 66c | 45.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…0de7backed No | 80c | 37.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…3a8dbacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 64c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…d7a3backed No | 65c | 31.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b53…ac90backed No | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…766fbacked No | 69c | 30.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…8886backed No | 70c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4a…57cebacked No | 67c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…e4a5backed No | 69c | 26.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…d6e6backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…fe95backed No | 64c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…1cccbacked No | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…608abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…34d6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…a694backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…39e3backed No | 70c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.