TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,333
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,333 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No0c11,108$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303240.6%13 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd98…cc33backed No0c7,582$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No0c7,260$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.519749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,170$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.131,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked No1c2,920$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed No2c2,853$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…edf2backed No2c2,588$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes72c2,058$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.7823839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6039…03a0backed No1c2,049$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.93825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed No1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No24c827.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc850…a960backed No1c708.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a6…9837backed No2c660.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No28c657$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6233337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No7c650$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5819534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a22…138ebacked No2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes31c501.85$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.8538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No45c490.07$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.722737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes69c483.76$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.081931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No14c429.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3815331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae8…0e50backed No6c428.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes54c367$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1673969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No3c350$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes60c342.24$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.98641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No22c338.19$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9635819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes42c334$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.5656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3146…d2febacked No3c328$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed No5c305.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No28c300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecd8…f132backed Yes60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x825e…e7d6backed No40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No18c211.51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes73c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.32020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes66c199.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No30c177.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5940939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No24c177.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5631719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f7b…af22backed No32c156.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5bd…7e75backed No66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-66.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes35c146.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7135355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes72c140$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.583228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes72c139.9$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.766018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe88…f1eabacked No76c132.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9e…ef77backed No40c125.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3427233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…2030backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.54per pick30cpaid+214.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5571…0346backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No69c99.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9442120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa09…cde0backed Yes46c94.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1113250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed No61c81.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8456…e61abacked Yes59c79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.391338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62a…29bdbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.07850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c71.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes70c64.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.596657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x590a…204abacked No65c61.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes28c60.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.172147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e37…2273backed No76c58.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes59c51.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.213348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe903…c2d6backed No60c49.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes44c47.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a24…56b3backed No71c46.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aea…ee37backed No62c44.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.96666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e7…eb87backed Yes40c42.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc58…1dffbacked No37c41.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc3…6dd2backed No52c41.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.171241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.43363.6%21 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b40…11a1backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.413440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56046.7%28 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed No50c39.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d7…9b78backed No55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.157354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c53…c46bbacked No64c32.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84dd…586fbacked No76c32.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42e7…43bdbacked No62c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbb…bdd0backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.14151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf33…cba5backed No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1299…21b1backed Yes50c28.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No64c28.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8381…29f5backed No76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc335…8502backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No60c23.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0918929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd185…f969backed No54c22.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf8…1fa4backed Yes53c20.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…d3e0backed No73c20.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28555.3%47 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e20…3b66backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick67cpaid-71%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf165…1493backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x618f…a6b7backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d4…0fe2backed No73c17.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.