TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84fa…1327backed Yes56c6,692$3,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,976.4914335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No23c3,272$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.569535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No14c3,004$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No1c2,131$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.369626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No22c1,712$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.7535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…145bbacked No53c1,674$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No42c1,594$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.4436750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No7c1,545$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6231344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed No39c1,257$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.19812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2430…36f4backed No55c1,212$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.251250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c1,207$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No10c1,200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.23534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf748…77dbbacked No23c1,021$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes40c901.85$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.8538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No43c776.56$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.1138247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed Yes54c746.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.583135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No67c740$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.82050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa359…a882backed Yes60c711.68$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.483839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47b8…6b11backed Yes42c699.17$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No34c606.32$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.956018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24d5…c4c0backed Yes33c600$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+54.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No58c562.88$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2823839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No24c509.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.391879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1071…42cebacked Yes59c500$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked No7c448.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.263228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8091…08d6backed No45c440$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No58c399.99$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No46c383$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1817740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x150a…e004backed Yes59c378.88$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes71c371.75$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes72c366.33$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.732123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes56c359.9$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.063450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes80c354.49$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.11553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes37c350$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22056336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes74c340$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.82842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed No47c323.09$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.948641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x126a…e83bbacked Yes31c306.8$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.34560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No66c300.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No21c266.49$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.211741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed No5c261.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.653135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes68c256.75$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.873534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed No45c255.66$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.745540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.56240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed No4c240$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d99…4ca3backed No60c237.22$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.812245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes78c216$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3821160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe6f…7495backed Yes76c214.82$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.271060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fa6…8919backed Yes45c209.04$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.211040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No26c199.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c199.98$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked No16c194.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.769920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed No56c190.82$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.594035%14 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes67c185$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69dd…97a2backed No65c176.63$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43db…9871backed Yes58c168.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.97580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc7e…a211backed No24c168.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No74c161$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.733225%8 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc850…a960backed No35c143.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc1d…4036backed No35c141.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No53c136.66$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.929749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No22c134.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7215331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c7…43eabacked Yes50c134$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No43c128$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes65c124.66$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc388…8d61backed No19c116.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes61c112.02$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.383246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No66c106.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No19c101.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4e…8ae5backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.21225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49f1…fe4ebacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x877d…eebbbacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No67c99.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6710234.3%35 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No27c98.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.746342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes36c88.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+417.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No46c83.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.487341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c83.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3dc…ce0bbacked No39c83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.255639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2229…e543backed No40c77.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.14425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes45c75.29$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2731719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc62a…29bdbacked Yes37c70.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.95837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed No33c66.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c65.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No50c65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.57354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed No35c65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.456657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes68c64.96$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.576953.6%37 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bf5…69b6backed No42c59.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf60d…ad82backed No54c57.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+81.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x590a…204abacked No65c53.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.621442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes76c46.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1320247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc36…4553backed Yes32c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes40c44.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef5…4a71backed Yes58c42.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x252c…0b31backed No46c42.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No37c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.289410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa433…67ccbacked No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6537…b9debacked Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.411424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.