TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,271
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,271 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a61…af24backed No19c7,268$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.929535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No1c3,738$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.088144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde64…137fbacked No1c3,425$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes21c2,407$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90715629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes38c2,387$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.6540433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No1c2,222$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes48c2,063$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.9523839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes25c1,833$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.4117128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes34c1,809$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.917025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed No53c1,760$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.531010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-81.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb509…c01dbacked No1c1,579$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes53c1,495$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.383672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b10…e48fbacked No1c1,450$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.331643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No3c1,401$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.351879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes26c1,288$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.835040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No32c1,172$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.424245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x466a…3d87backed No73c1,162$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No3c999.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301520%3 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+242.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes29c963.28$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.1535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda1f…2c9fbacked No54c930.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes54c897.17$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.553923.1%9 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes46c785.35$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4278739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa03…2927backed No72c695.16$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2cb7…e399backed No57c654.98$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.1966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf141…d9aabacked Yes58c653.5$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.912343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Yes41c577$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.87933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf221…2575backed Yes21c559.14$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf79f…662ebacked No55c553.46$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6d…14dfbacked No7c534.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed No42c499.96$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.992055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8778…eb86backed No66c464.33$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No59c462.57$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.0522262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29f1…ce5fbacked No50c460$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed Yes48c433.74$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.933135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c07…8c2bbacked Yes55c400$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.67944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22014520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed No57c399.9$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes58c399.79$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.266752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebb6…feb7backed No56c324.45$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes51c318.25$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7517414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes33c304.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.7614420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes55c291.96$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4814335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No61c288.44$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.717850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70ef…63b4backed Yes51c266.23$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.234042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes42c263.25$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed Yes57c228.48$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.483438.2%13 W · 21 L-8.2wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-39.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed Yes43c225.28$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.625455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c199.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b69…3173backed Yes49c199.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+56.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes51c189.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7831344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e27…7ae6backed No57c184.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.71353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No15c180$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbdf…c675backed Yes56c178.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.633053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No38c178.6$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0110244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45eb…dcb7backed No64c170.03$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb78…8818backed No54c167$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.18850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed Yes60c166.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.922142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes62c165.13$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.357536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes41c158.44$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0120235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4520…c024backed No46c156.04$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.05955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf08…3227backed Yes52c146.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes56c145.47$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.636041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No44c132.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.779626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes55c125.27$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc9…2c33backed Yes16c123.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+49.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked No22c119.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.47619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes21c118$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.967335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5626…71c7backed No61c114.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No33c112.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.277444.6%33 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes42c111.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.411921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fba…8a7dbacked No74c108.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d7…0b5ebacked Yes56c107.93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.931250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…cd13backed No52c105.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed No59c104.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes51c102.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02dc…89f3backed No57c93.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+60.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No57c90.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.884151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1514940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked Yes33c89.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.995729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fb…10ecbacked Yes47c86.36$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.362850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d2f…2dedbacked No60c84.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No52c82.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.635743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes38c80.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5045843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2063…d38fbacked No62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a8…bb79backed Yes32c78.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.13425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0638…5b6fbacked No53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes34c75.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5431719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.754866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed No37c74.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.753743.2%16 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa721…b3f0backed No40c74.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes34c74.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5626616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6432…8616backed No69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503063.3%19 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+40.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes69c71.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.993423.5%8 W · 26 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No56c71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.763256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked No74c67.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x786b…c46ebacked No59c66.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x303d…a1c9backed No51c65.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.531225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.