Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610aa0277b8272b6026cbf3556cd1e8484fd8e7b1a6d481e392aaac3e81953cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 19c | 7,268$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.92 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No | 1c | 3,738$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…137fbacked No | 1c | 3,425$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,407$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 38c | 2,387$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.65 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 1c | 2,222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 48c | 2,063$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.95 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 25c | 1,833$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.41 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 34c | 1,809$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.91 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed No | 53c | 1,760$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…c01dbacked No | 1c | 1,579$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 53c | 1,495$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.38 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked No | 1c | 1,450$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 3c | 1,401$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,288$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.83 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 32c | 1,172$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.42 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…3d87backed No | 73c | 1,162$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 3c | 999.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 963.28$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.15 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1f…2c9fbacked No | 54c | 930.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 54c | 897.17$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.55 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 46c | 785.35$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2927backed No | 72c | 695.16$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…e399backed No | 57c | 654.98$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 58c | 653.5$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Yes | 41c | 577$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed Yes | 21c | 559.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…662ebacked No | 55c | 553.46$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6d…14dfbacked No | 7c | 534.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 42c | 499.96$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…eb86backed No | 66c | 464.33$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 59c | 462.57$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.05 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…ce5fbacked No | 50c | 460$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 48c | 433.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…8c2bbacked Yes | 55c | 400$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 57c | 399.9$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 58c | 399.79$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…feb7backed No | 56c | 324.45$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 51c | 318.25$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.75 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 33c | 304.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.76 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 55c | 291.96$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 61c | 288.44$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…63b4backed Yes | 51c | 266.23$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 42c | 263.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.75 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 57c | 228.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -8.2wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 43c | 225.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed Yes | 49c | 199.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 51c | 189.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…7ae6backed No | 57c | 184.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed Yes | 56c | 178.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 38c | 178.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45eb…dcb7backed No | 64c | 170.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…8818backed No | 54c | 167$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed Yes | 60c | 166.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 62c | 165.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 41c | 158.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…c024backed No | 46c | 156.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…3227backed Yes | 52c | 146.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 56c | 145.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 44c | 132.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 125.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…2c33backed Yes | 16c | 123.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 21c | 118$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…71c7backed No | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 33c | 112.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 42c | 111.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…8a7dbacked No | 74c | 108.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0b5ebacked Yes | 56c | 107.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…cd13backed No | 52c | 105.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 59c | 104.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 51c | 102.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…89f3backed No | 57c | 93.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 57c | 90.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 33c | 89.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fb…10ecbacked Yes | 47c | 86.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked No | 60c | 84.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 52c | 82.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…d38fbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…bb79backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…5b6fbacked No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 34c | 75.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 37c | 74.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b3f0backed No | 40c | 74.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 34c | 74.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…8616backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked No | 74c | 67.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…c46ebacked No | 59c | 66.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a1c9backed No | 51c | 65.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.