TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,936 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x934f…f3b8backed Yes9c3,007$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.02475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed Yes2c2,934$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes12c2,544$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6517128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…391bbacked Yes3c2,427$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc418…40c2backed Yes5c1,709$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes15c1,660$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.257012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf221…2575backed Yes6c1,561$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x706c…7752backed Yes1c1,518$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.761827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes12c1,466$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.513923.1%9 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes11c1,413$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked No62c1,391$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.751758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,309$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e4…63dabacked Yes7c1,282$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9591…19abbacked Yes5c1,273$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d6…358fbacked No61c1,145$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No75c1,025$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.57850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes39c1,022$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x466a…3d87backed No77c977.62$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.62475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes7c934.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes26c919.47$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.316018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc18…cb94backed No61c897$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed No61c872$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.081457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x163a…70a2backed No61c868$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.521145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc9…2c33backed Yes8c859.84$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+49.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed Yes39c850$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf728…1e11backed Yes28c838.27$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb214…a6aabacked Yes38c808$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+84.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf79f…662ebacked No60c749.6$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes39c713$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…69d8backed Yes14c692.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+136.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes37c601$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.371060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed Yes39c598$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0836…5a7abacked Yes36c547.87$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+67.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd05a…bf53backed Yes4c539.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No61c535$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.65944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked Yes39c527$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c524.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes38c513$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed Yes39c498$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79a1…2d87backed No61c498$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e27…7ae6backed No71c488.11$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.581353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9943…3360backed Yes4c468.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No77c460.02$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e7…e3b4backed Yes4c454.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No59c452.14$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0717646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes39c450$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes5c435.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.914335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes33c427.29$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes19c427.07$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.145040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes39c415$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.852060%12 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+63.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4522…897ebacked Yes58c397.03$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No52c380$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18310121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8b…4f4cbacked Yes26c368.63$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.841030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+111%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0d…835bbacked Yes14c362.42$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…3227backed Yes45c357.25$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes57c353.76$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No72c351.38$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd286…d20ebacked No61c349$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9730…ab9dbacked Yes9c346.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa721…b3f0backed No60c334.84$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.841172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed Yes39c332$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed No61c332$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.481172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+84.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes16c331.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.681921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes21c325.95$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+37.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes43c323.55$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.234940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64a…536abacked Yes27c322.19$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes7c308.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.386126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5940…30e5backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes38c299.97$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9923525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e7c…4d13backed No63c297.27$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.255100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+171.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb509…c01dbacked Yes49c293.33$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14560%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes25c284.47$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.631719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes39c278$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.422552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed Yes39c276$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc690…0decbacked No58c259.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7979…8b45backed No66c250.74$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.491457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes41c243.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8772…d10fbacked Yes16c241.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes42c238.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed Yes42c238.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480a…dea2backed Yes9c231.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes44c228.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70ef…63b4backed Yes54c222.04$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No65c214$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.120549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes30c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.137233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed No39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.45944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c199.98$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No63c198$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.262544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No64c189.05$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0522262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes37c189$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x337e…9b4ebacked Yes16c188.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No63c187$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.191540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d75…a294backed No56c169.38$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29af…2473backed No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9532…fba3backed Yes12c162.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…1212backed No77c158.72$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.22875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x833b…d4bbbacked Yes45c156.54$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes12c155.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.072384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes37c144.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9515943.4%69 W · 90 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.