TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x13b6…ba85

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+66.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$137.72
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$259.08
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+300%+$273.75
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$1,088.1
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$357.52
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.55
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+420.8%+$239.17
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.13
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$655Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+120.8%+$791.51
Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.18
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$446.6
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$55.65
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$68.77
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$207.7
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$152.96
All 15 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.3
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$84.48
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.6
Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.3
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.36
Will "GOAT" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+525%+$196.56
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$113.85
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+354.5%+$404.04
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$449Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$287.04
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$367.4
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+104.1%+$127.5
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$166.2
Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+194.1%+$133.32
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+85.5%+$234.19
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$161
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$195
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.4%+$242.05
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$287.14
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$139.46
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$409.5
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$40.56
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+152.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$52.03
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+31.6%+$77.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$331.5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$32.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$171.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Philadelphia Eagles be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+233.3%+$32.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$511Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$471.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oregon and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+58.7%+$319.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$74.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$315.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 15,500,000 and 16,000,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$142.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.