Movies · resolved market

Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf8cfc2e23b173ccd60d685fae70e49b817b6135830c90bff61592f07a0ce59

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,719 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	26c	1,411$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.84	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	27c	1,408$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.67	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked Yes	59c	1,073$634 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.53	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	22c	1,021$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.68	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes	71c	999$709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.71	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+5.7wins	+0.27per pick	44cpaid	+90.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	67c	965$648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.77	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No	28c	946$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.88	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	71c	929$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.56	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No	29c	913$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.77	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ef…79d6backed No	27c	847$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.69	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No	42c	816.21$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.32	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked Yes	72c	766$552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.48	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked Yes	74c	762$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.12	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes	73c	733$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.91	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes	72c	728$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.84	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No	27c	725.62$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.26	331	23.9%79 W · 252 L	+12.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes	45c	683$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.28	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No	29c	673$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.17	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No	26c	669$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.62	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed No	55c	668$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.4	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No	30c	623$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.01	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes	72c	617$444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.76	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No	28c	600$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed No	28c	576$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.28	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed No	28c	573$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.44	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x636c…ea28backed No	38c	571$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.98	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes	73c	560$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.2	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No	45c	541$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.45	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No	28c	540$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed Yes	69c	538$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.78	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes	73c	530$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.1	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c5…dcb1backed No	29c	515$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.35	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No	27c	499$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.73	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No	37c	492$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.64	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No	43c	486$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.92	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-5.4wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	64c	445$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.91	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes	58c	435$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.56	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed No	29c	409$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.61	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes	71c	403$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.87	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes	72c	397$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.16	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed No	45c	392$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.4	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes	72c	391$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.48	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes	71c	389$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.81	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.4wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+43.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No	28c	387$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.36	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes	71c	355$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.95	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+4.1wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked No	28c	352$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.56	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes	72c	341$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.48	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No	29c	340$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.6	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-53%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked Yes	71c	340$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.6	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5481…50ecbacked No	64c	338$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	61cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed Yes	62c	333$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.54	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No	29c	325$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.25	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes	71c	320$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.8	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c4c…be9fbacked No	29c	320$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.8	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.19per pick	37cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No	27c	317$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.59	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes	71c	315$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.35	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed No	20c	305$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes	72c	304$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.12	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No	28c	295$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.6	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.20per pick	44cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed Yes	71c	293$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.97	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9b…1c56backed No	47c	280$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.6	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes	60c	277.74$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.74	198	36.4%72 W · 126 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes	71c	277$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.33	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa67…4585backed No	37c	275$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.75	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No	34c	271$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.47	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-6.1wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed Yes	39c	266$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.26	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed Yes	71c	256$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.24	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd8…8f4bbacked No	63c	248$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.01	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes	71c	247$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.63	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No	27c	247$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.69	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b63…52cfbacked No	27c	243$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.61	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes	42c	238.1$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.1	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+50%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes	62c	238$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.44	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed Yes	71c	235$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	78c	232.08$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.9	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked No	61c	231$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.91	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes	72c	222$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.16	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No	28c	222$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.16	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked No	29c	216$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.64	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc7…8211backed Yes	55c	214$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.3	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes	65c	210.78$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.19	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No	11c	200.05$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+8.2wins	+0.28per pick	17cpaid	+145.2%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes	59c	200$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+53%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6d3…ae43backed Yes	78c	200$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No	14c	199.92$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.57	97	45.4%44 W · 53 L	+22.0wins	+0.23per pick	23cpaid	+88%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes	72c	197$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.16	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-37%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes	63c	194$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.78	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No	39c	194$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.78	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed Yes	78c	192$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.24	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	20c	189.67$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.93	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes	72c	184$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	25c	179.89$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.53	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes	36c	179$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.56	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed No	61c	175$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.75	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes	39c	175$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.75	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…84f1backed Yes	58c	175$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.75	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No	31c	171$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.01	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	41c	170$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.4	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event