TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x750b…7a65

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Music at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$151.86
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.3
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.97
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$215.76
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.5
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.74
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$41.58
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$182.88
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.04
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$41.89
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.97
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$80.4
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+44.9%+$204.91
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$93.1
Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+573.1%+$83.44
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$32.19
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.8
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$605Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$340.2
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$55.47
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$186
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$430.97
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+143.9%+$100.89
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$263.64
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$352.45
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$166.78
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50.96
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+100%+$359.5
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$161.46
Will Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$27.94
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$82.42
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+77.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$37.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon (AMZN) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.