TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a61…af24backed No1c6,008$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.082642.3%11 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+335.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes30c1,215$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.242035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes28c1,090$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.83161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No61c1,066$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.263141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes41c1,019$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.212245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes43c930$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.12356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No74c796$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.042445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No56c789$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.843063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed Yes38c736$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.321450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked No80c731$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.81330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No61c728$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.082951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes28c694$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No62c690$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.82343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes39c674$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.144334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed Yes44c670$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.22665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No62c667$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.542944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No62c638$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.752040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes26c628$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.722466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked Yes28c603$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.161963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes41c600$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3542343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes37c598$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.792441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked Yes39c560$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.62653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No72c560$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.21931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No72c553.53$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.542326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes27c551$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.233148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes29c528$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.881850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No58c510$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.584542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No72c504$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.881435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No59c488$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.923240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed No71c478$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.382524%6 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-61.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes39c476$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.411631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked No74c461$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.141040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes28c451$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.722466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No72c448$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.562832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No57c440$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.83743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No69c427$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.143951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No67c424$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.353036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes26c412$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.881656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No73c411$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.032433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2282835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No72c398$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.162839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes28c391$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.73528.6%10 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-45.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No71c389.09$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed No73c383$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.592250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes28c378$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.162236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No67c376$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.922123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes38c373$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.73056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c362$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.825311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed No59c362$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.581258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x966a…6d73backed Yes75c361.49$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.49862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No73c359$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.071353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes27c359$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.071338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed No56c358$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.48933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes45c357$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.353145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No59c346$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.143946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes30c326.43$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.55726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed No62c324$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.882552%13 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes32c319$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.921533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked No58c315$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.71338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed No72c314$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.082931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed No62c311$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.821942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes40c306$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.62171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+90.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f33…81f6backed Yes33c295$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.651540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes30c294.49$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2513740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes26c283$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.421747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…ea1dbacked Yes31c281$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.891060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x749e…181fbacked Yes23c269$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x963a…f044backed Yes29c261.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+115.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No38c261$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.713040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No72c257$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.282948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes44c251$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.562540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes27c243$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.392445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed Yes42c240$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No72c237$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.642152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked No71c231$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.011936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No72c220$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.41838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No74c216$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.841330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c4c…be9fbacked No73c215$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.951717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-65.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes28c214$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.082842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes33c207$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.694645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed No68c207$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed No72c204$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.31546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes32c202$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.365750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked No68c201$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.682343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes38c201$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.622759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No72c195$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.43246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed No60c194$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No57c191$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.872828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes43c189$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.735046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed Yes28c187$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.641952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes38c186$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.322356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed Yes40c184$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.42437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed No60c184$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.43638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No73c183$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.593141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes28c182$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.041741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No59c180$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No74c175.1$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.823745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed Yes41c171$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.891457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No68c170.17$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.933066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+52.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.