TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 427 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x367b…48dabacked Yes54c1,595$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.33145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed No51c1,241$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.431540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb29…19c8backed No53c1,201$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.47955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked No45c1,171$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.411471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No53c1,161$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.672055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes47c1,075$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No29c1,041$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.113938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5402152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes42c939$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.5113040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes69c917$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.332437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed No31c884$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.362458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8465…6cd7backed No53c859$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes47c853$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.911931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked No46c835$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.91758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No35c819.75$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.072646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed Yes59c806$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.681346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed Yes49c805$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.451154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+73.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked No53c769$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.431866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+123%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No53c710$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.71947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No45c696$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.82227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes60c692$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.962725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682f…fc69backed Yes47c672$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes9c666$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.94137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes68c655$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.892540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes47c608$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes54c607.01$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5448236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed Yes47c581$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes47c575$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed Yes47c569$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.431361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No34c561$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.262937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No60c542$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.82343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes70c531$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes55c530$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed No53c519$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e96…c895backed No46c518$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.721428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes49c506$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed No53c501$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.471250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No53c478$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.661643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0956…9aa4backed No53c468$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.961050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5baa…0ec6backed Yes47c464$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No34c452$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.321346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1802…b7d3backed Yes47c443$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No53c443$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.211060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No53c432$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.041338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed No46c422$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.881353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes54c422$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.882236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed No51c419$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.311662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+118.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No47c418$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.391850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes47c405$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked No46c405$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.71936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes66c400$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642524%6 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-61.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd8c6…c2dfbacked No34c400$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2647100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+172.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed No46c391$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.141353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes54c388$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.522339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No36c382$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.483253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes71c377$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.673246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed No59c377$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.571172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+88.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes51c372$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.722450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd286…d20ebacked Yes47c365$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-60.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed Yes40c362$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.82152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed Yes66c362$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.921250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked No53c361$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.74875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+98.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed No29c361$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.312828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes54c359$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.863234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked No46c357$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.781338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes54c357$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.781850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes47c354$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9221…b087backed No30c349$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98cb…a127backed Yes47c344$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes40c336.22$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6929926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes54c334$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.362646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…eab3backed No30c331$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No59c329$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.891850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes71c326$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.463161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No29c326$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.462254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f58…e29abacked No57c323$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.951526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-61%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed Yes47c322$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.34862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes54c321$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.342152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed No48c320$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.42948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes39c314$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.461833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes47c313$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.111233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed No61c302$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.781266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2132832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed Yes49c292$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.082839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked No29c292$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.272030%6 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed Yes47c292$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No51c290$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.62552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes55c289$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.952352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0032…4515backed No31c272$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed No51c268$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.321650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d2…ea1dbacked Yes54c263.64$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.371060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes54c261$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes53c254$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.812540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed Yes47c252$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.441030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes41c243$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.63944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed Yes41c236$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes28c236$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.082441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes54c235$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.93132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.