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Movies · resolved market

Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae18…1132backed No72c904$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.883141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes45c893.04$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.5948636%175 W · 311 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes28c866$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.521323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes28c814$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.081643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No71c807$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.973246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes46c799$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.9929926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed Yes34c795$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.71952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked No62c694$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.281118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed Yes29c607$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.971457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No64c605$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes29c571$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.412646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No66c521$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.863253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No72c505$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.61580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes36c471$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.441127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No71c412$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.522540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No71c389$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.192045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed Yes38c386$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.32650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes50c382.35$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0613040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No56c368.56$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.831428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-61.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes27c364$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.722937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes29c358$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.181553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No49c335.14$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8128528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes28c325$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2342045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked No75c320$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No66c320$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.23056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed No53c319.8$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed No68c314$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.472733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77d2…b7efbacked No29c312.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes23c311$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.471855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes38c308$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.961435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No72c301$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.722544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked No71c282$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.971637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes34c260$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked No73c256$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.881833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes37c252$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.761154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No63c252$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.763641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No71c252$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.921330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No72c248$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.563253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes25c236$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1773655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No51c224.91$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11515739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked No71c221$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.912236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes35c216$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.42934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No66c214$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.244542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8127…a84abacked No32c214$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed Yes29c211$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.811936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes56c210$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6734651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed No51c206.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No48c204.24$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4223841.2%98 W · 140 L-0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a62…61f8backed No30c203$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes32c200$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13713740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed No71c199$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.291154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+73.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No70c196$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.983751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes33c194$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.981553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed No65c191$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.152665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No75c190$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.52737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe85…307cbacked Yes36c189$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked No78c188$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.031650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes25c185$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.752343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+97.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes27c185$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.052152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No72c184$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.482433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed No39c183.37$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.82941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…bcf0backed No79c179$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.811838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed No73c177$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.213145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes29c175$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.252955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e6…b90dbacked No33c173$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes29c168$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.282458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes29c167$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.572454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes34c167$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.221942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed No77c167$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.592147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a4…4f49backed No31c164$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes23c163$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.513540%14 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b1…5e02backed Yes35c162$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes47c161.94$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.813650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed No67c161$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.871631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes21c160$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.42850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes28c156.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.027136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No75c151.39$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5412923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2bd…d498backed No31c151$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed Yes28c149$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.281353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb926…b1e2backed Yes35c145$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes28c141$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.522839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No77c138$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.263748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed No79c136$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.441957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes25c135$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.251080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+67%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes36c134$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+71.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No77c132$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.492060%12 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes25c130$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.52842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed Yes28c129$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.882352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes25c129$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.752360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424c…5853backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed Yes22c127$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.062254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf585…bac1backed No29c123$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d13…efc8backed No33c122$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No65c122$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4223751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.63933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf54b…8e96backed No35c120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf77b…d836backed Yes71c119$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No80c119$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.042835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No72c118$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.982948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No75c117$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.752548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.