TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee4e…aa5a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: College Football, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$202.24
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.55
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+243%+$89.97
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.49
Will "Wuthering Heights" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+37.3%+$72.85
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$82.06
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$20.02
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.69
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+192.1%+$191.36
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22.77
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$53.91
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$43.68
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+194.1%+$110.22
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$56.9
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$108.3
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+233.3%+$88.9
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$22.4
Will Owen Cooper (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$97.28
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38.61
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$43.12
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$101.48
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$38.35
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.71
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$92.75
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.24
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$581.15
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$530.34
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.56
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+126.2%+$94.3
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+106.6%+$232.19
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.88
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$36
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.95
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.24
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$25.52
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$60.76
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+87%+$211.28
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$679Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$555.75
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$359.16
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+31.6%+$112.32
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$206.98
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$202
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+61.8%+$124.91
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$228.54
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$165.14
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+49.3%+$47.52
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12.6
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.66
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$77.28
Google Gemini Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+47.2%+$69.59
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$242.46
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$54.29
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66.43
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100.05
Will Amazon acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.88
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$101.92
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+866.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+166.7%+$26.87
Will Miami Florida make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+1,566.7%+$181.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$269.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$136.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Southern Illinois Salukis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$156.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$33.58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.