Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b6072d0211619124606d4a1fbfe719654f93d44a275d4b20f5a82a8e7a140dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0900…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 10,700$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 33c | 4,700$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 30c | 4,362$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…88a3backed Yes | 12c | 3,700$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 48c | 3,617$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.15 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,083$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 55c | 2,698$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,689$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.09 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 43c | 2,170$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 71c | 1,736$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 33c | 1,533$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed No | 69c | 1,529$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 44c | 1,391$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.43 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 69c | 1,374$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,318$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 1,300$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,285$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 1,183$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,157$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 6c | 1,052$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 73c | 1,049$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,012$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 65c | 996$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 72c | 991.09$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.83 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 12c | 975.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 75c | 949.93$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.22 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 34c | 864.43$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…0757backed No | 30c | 841.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…6eebbacked Yes | 23c | 836.79$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 71c | 827.5$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 51c | 816$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.84 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…aa22backed Yes | 37c | 786.31$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 51c | 752$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.52 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 710.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 28c | 685$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 69c | 681.4$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 49c | 678$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…320dbacked No | 68c | 673$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 52c | 659.22$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 51c | 641$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 617.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 30c | 616$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 52c | 587$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 49c | 586$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 48c | 583$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 31c | 563.86$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 28c | 559$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…14f4backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 56c | 549$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 45c | 542.09$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.79 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 28c | 534$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 73c | 525.96$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.53 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 72c | 510$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 51c | 500$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…1058backed Yes | 70c | 495$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 72c | 476$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 470.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…1478backed No | 46c | 464$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 67c | 453.66$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked No | 45c | 446$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 49c | 437.17$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 428.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…8fdabacked No | 70c | 426$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 405.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…6133backed No | 63c | 404.28$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes | 50c | 404$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 70c | 401$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…1b5ebacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 55c | 394$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 48c | 389.9$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 28c | 389$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.08 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 49c | 388$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 64c | 381.47$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.35 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 63c | 380$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 379.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 72c | 377$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 374.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 28c | 374$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +193%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 369.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 32c | 364.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 51c | 359$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 351.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed No | 48c | 347.21$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 72c | 347$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes | 4c | 346.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 70c | 343.33$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.33 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 69c | 327.01$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 70c | 323$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 63c | 322.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.3 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed No | 49c | 322$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 72c | 319$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…1a42backed No | 73c | 310.62$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes | 72c | 310$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed No | 32c | 308.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e86…98a8backed Yes | 51c | 303$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.