Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e2cb0f8baff17af693d88804003de9b96c84daf4abb1b55890f5c2825a8a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,142$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 12c | 2,461$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 1,928$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked No | 21c | 1,677$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked No | 13c | 1,586$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…d945backed No | 24c | 1,475$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 20c | 1,300$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c3…3a41backed No | 11c | 1,256$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 78c | 1,120$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.77 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 5c | 1,096$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 14c | 1,062$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed No | 24c | 1,025$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.28 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 4c | 916.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 908.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 29c | 901$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…4c57backed No | 24c | 850.36$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 71c | 836$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…7a52backed No | 12c | 834.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 11c | 814.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…dc99backed Yes | 76c | 804.92$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 20c | 803$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 18c | 782$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…956abacked No | 16c | 772.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 80c | 729.62$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 13c | 696$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 607.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 10c | 600$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 39cpaid | +208%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 79c | 600$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8491…f31fbacked No | 13c | 572.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 14c | 569.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 18c | 542$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 18c | 524$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 25c | 477$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 18c | 458$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 14c | 453.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…2100backed No | 25c | 437.11$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…3d33backed No | 12c | 420.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 12c | 420.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 75c | 399.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed No | 8c | 382.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 18c | 366$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x949f…b038backed No | 6c | 356.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 16c | 354.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…c9d7backed No | 25c | 351.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…e4b7backed No | 13c | 340.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 327.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed No | 18c | 317$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f48…df03backed No | 10c | 304.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd1…1855backed No | 6c | 301.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…e1dcbacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…76ebbacked No | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed No | 17c | 299$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 77c | 299$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…f10dbacked No | 4c | 294.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…a35abacked No | 7c | 293.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 13c | 281$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…af7abacked No | 14c | 275.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 13c | 274.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 18c | 266$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c2…561cbacked No | 10c | 265$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…9cc7backed No | 14c | 259$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed No | 10c | 258.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…feb1backed No | 12c | 254.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed No | 10c | 244.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 8c | 243.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked No | 8c | 238.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3e21backed No | 11c | 230.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb13…8c5dbacked No | 17c | 213.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 15c | 198$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 195.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…e2d5backed No | 9c | 176.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed No | 12c | 172.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed No | 25c | 172.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 77c | 170$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…c820backed No | 12c | 169.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…ea0bbacked No | 12c | 169.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed No | 9c | 167.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed No | 17c | 166.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 79c | 164.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…1bb9backed No | 8c | 163.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…846fbacked No | 22c | 151.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 24c | 149.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 9c | 148.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…1304backed No | 17c | 144.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…754abacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…2789backed No | 18c | 140.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…f3eabacked No | 11c | 137.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 75c | 136.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 18c | 134$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…ffc7backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed No | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…c398backed No | 18c | 126.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed No | 15c | 123.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…3f04backed No | 22c | 123.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…f20cbacked No | 16c | 123.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.