TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6177…c22a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$285
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.2
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$277.87
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$90.72
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$257.04
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$457.3
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+163.2%+$280.86
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$511Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$510.5
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$181.98
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$534.56
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.45
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.97
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$52.25
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$157.68
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$121.17
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$78.12
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$117
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$161.7
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$148.84
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$187.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+338.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Utah State Aggiesbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+338.6%+$336.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+203%+$156.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+127.3%+$275.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$535.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?backed Even · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+98.4%+$36.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$426.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$286.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$41.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$67.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.