Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Utah State Aggies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98f774f9abf2d58b98cbe0610e7b79e5a7759499e21a179f662e94f5bd36c29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLV Runnin' Rebelsof UNLV Runnin' Rebels, Utah State Aggies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,843 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Utah State Aggies | 77c | 1,320$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Utah State Aggies | 8c | 1,230$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 23c | 451$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 23c | 436$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 23c | 433$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Utah State Aggies | 70c | 43.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Utah State Aggies | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.