Movies · resolved market
Will Rhea Seehorn win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd6ef3f717dcf4bc2ae114d6733312134d6f59293de698ac359ada0da829d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 17c | 1,173$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 16c | 855$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 26c | 725.64$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 78c | 648$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 22c | 648$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.44 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 16c | 640$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 18c | 515.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.62 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…190ebacked No | 12c | 480$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +478.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 13c | 443$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 16c | 434$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Yes | 5c | 387.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 71c | 335.45$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 12c | 296.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.37 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…93a6backed No | 28c | 290$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 7c | 275$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 200$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 199.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.95 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 13c | 183.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 7c | 152.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 12c | 149$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 143.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 61c | 140.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf434…c6aabacked Yes | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 106.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 98.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 16c | 85.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…336fbacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…5a23backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +576.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6080…b7cabacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +599.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…b16abacked Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…1d41backed Yes | 76c | 61.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…e993backed Yes | 37c | 39.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…0caebacked Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rhea Seehorn win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Aimee Lou Wood win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Britt Lower win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Katherine LaNasa win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Kathy Bates win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Keri Russell win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes won
- Will Parker Posey win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Winona Ryder win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.