TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x997f…b3c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30.74
Will Rhea Seehorn win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+669.2%+$385.41
Will Marshall Curry - SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$553.77
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$180.71
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$160.3
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$94.25
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$48.75
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$128.18
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+185.7%+$161.85
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$23.03
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$44.52
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+96.1%+$55.86
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.72
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$184.68
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$368.68
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$60.99
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$31.74
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$76.11
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.81
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$140
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.7
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$423
Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$828Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$276
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.48
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+38.9%+$24.36
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+669.2%+$395.85
Will fewer than 20 tornadoes occur in the United States in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$29.88
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$23.9
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$423.25
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+170.3%+$558.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$140.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+212.5%+$250.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$538Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$389.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+35.1%+$73.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+31.6%+$108
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$57.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Harbaugh join the New York Giants prior to April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$157.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.