NBA · resolved market
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5762abe39c8b83cd512cff2c95f6243e239d091596b35d4df838684c33fbac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 2c | 3,666$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 3c | 3,606$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…ec28backed Yes | 1c | 1,687$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…b14cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 5c | 1,024$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 915.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 806.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 566.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 533.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 13c | 451$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 34c | 360$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 148 | 30.4%45 W · 103 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 24c | 351$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +286.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 24c | 341$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 319.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 12c | 308$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 76c | 267$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 12c | 247$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 12c | 232$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c063backed Yes | 9c | 230.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…bfaebacked Yes | 6c | 201.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 76c | 196$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 13c | 193$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 12c | 184$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 12c | 179$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 12c | 174$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 14c | 172$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc666…7130backed No | 80c | 161$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed No | 76c | 136$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 24c | 135$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 12c | 134$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 12c | 132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 12c | 131.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…b3edbacked Yes | 27c | 128.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 17c | 127$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 12c | 126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…2a6bbacked Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 15c | 118$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 76c | 112$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 23c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 80c | 106$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…6232backed No | 76c | 102$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 15c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 24c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 76c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 79c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?this page
- Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?Yes won
- Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?No won
- Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.