TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71f6…ea40

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
147
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Music, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Music at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$646Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$645.6
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.62
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+525%+$66.36
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$19.71
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.52
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.79
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$46.56
Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14.3
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$75.92
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.84
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+62.4%+$46.89
Will Nina Gold (Hamnet) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$8.37
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+52.5%+$63.77
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$68.15
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$68.17
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.38
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+132.6%+$64.98
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+42.9%+$181.8
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+37%+$28.08
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$91.08
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$75.46
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$136.28
Will Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Jay Kelly) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$12.39
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$164.15
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.34
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.99
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$42.9
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+276%+$498.43
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.31
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$263.64
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.4
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$295.56
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+51.8%+$155.9
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.57
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$6.09
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$33.64
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.59
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$529Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$260.37
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.84
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.91
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.84
Will the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.19
Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10.53
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.6
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$12.39
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$60.39
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-45.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.46
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$89.1
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.89
Will Iran strike Syria in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.79
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$40.48
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.14
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$204.24
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$327.52
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$428.75
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$18.48
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$61.88
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$79.54
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$28.97
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$325.86
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+127.3%+$49.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$76.67
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$64.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+91.8%+$93.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$113.46
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25.73
All 22 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$53.58
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$626Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+29%+$181.54
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$85.28
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+35.1%+$31.72
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$164.16
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+150%+$156.6
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+61.8%+$98.94
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+177.8%+$25.6
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$231.64
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$452.14
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$452Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+33.3%+$150.75
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+400%+$76.8
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.75
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78.37
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+25.5%+$13.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+30.3%+$56.93
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+41.6%+$91.98
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+51.5%+$26.86
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.03
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.39
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.72
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+334.8%+$130.13
Google Gemini Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+28.2%+$6.82
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+38.9%+$30.24
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+329.2%+$174.88
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.82
Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.16
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+31.6%+$10.32
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$74.46
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.13
Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.4
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.22
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 15% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.99
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+244.8%+$46.15
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+85.2%+$31.74
Republican House Odds Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$66.6
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$109.2
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$43.25
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$72.93
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$76.37
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+152%+$115.8
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+426.3%+$668.25
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$214.82
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+138.1%+$125.28
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$32.45
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?-fkEWbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15.96
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+156.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$141.35
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$282.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$23.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+112.8%+$48.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$305.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$299.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$180.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (W)backed Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$463Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+42%+$194.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$38.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$81.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $5.0B and $5.4B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$236.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.